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Leubsdorf: Will Republicans blow it again on Senate control?

By Carl P. Leubsdorf

Published: May 21, 2023, 6:01am

Could the Republicans blow another chance to win Senate control?

Given the more favorable GOP 2024 landscape, it seems unlikely since Democrats would need to repeat their 2022 success of holding every vulnerable seat.

But the Republicans’ propensity for nominating unacceptable right-wing candidates has kept them from converting favorable odds into Senate control four times in the last 14 years — 2010, 2012, 2020 and 2022. Who’s to say it won’t happen again in 2024?

Of the 34 seats being contested in 2024, just 11 are held by Republicans and 23 by Democrats or independents who vote with them. None of the 11 GOP seats is now considered vulnerable, though some Texas Democrats believe Rep. Colin Allred could give Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a run for his money.

By contrast, five incumbent Democrats face reelection races that loom as either toss-ups or lean to them only slightly. In addition, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a maverick who caucuses with the Democrats but switched this year to independent, likely faces a difficult three-way race. And several other Democrats could face close races, depending on GOP primaries.

That means that, barring the kind of surprises that are always possible, Republicans probably have six chances to win the two seats they need to ensure Senate control, if Democrats retain the presidency, or only one, if the GOP regains the White House.

Seems simple. But in the year before the election, Republican internal battles have emerged in several prime GOP target states. The likeliest chance of a divisive GOP primary battle is in Arizona, where Republicans should be favored in a three-way race with a Democrat and Sinema. She has lost popularity since winning narrowly as a Democrat in 2018.

Besides Arizona, Republicans could jeopardize their chances in three other states by choosing nominees too far right. They are:

Nevada: Jim Marchant, an election denier defeated last year for secretary of state, recently became the first Republican to announce against Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen.
Pennsylvania: Defeated pro-Trump gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano may challenge the party establishment’s choice, wealthy industrialist David McCormick, who narrowly lost a primary for the state’s other seat last year.
West Virginia. Top Republicans favor Gov. Jim Justice, a wealthy former Democrat, for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Manchin, the most conservative Senate Democrat and a frequent White House critic, was narrowly reelected with under 50 percent in 2018. He says he will decide by Jan. 15 to seek reelection, seek another office or retire.

The other top GOP chances are in states Trump won big in 2020:

Montana. The top target of Montana Sen. Stephen Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is his Democratic colleague, Sen. Jon Tester. But GOP officials lost an attempt to change election rules to keep a third candidate from draining enough votes to reelect Tester.

Tester won in 2018 with 50.3 percent, and Trump carried the state by 20 points.

Ohio. Sen. Sherrod Brown, the state’s last major Democratic statewide office holder, faces a stiff challenge for a fourth term after Trump carried the state by 8 points and Republican J.D. Vance won a contested 2022 Senate race.

Elsewhere, Republicans have hopes in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin and in Michigan, where Rep. Elissa Slotkin hopes to succeed retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow. Both Democrats are currently favored.

As in 2022, Republicans have several ways to win the small number of seats they need. Once again, they have several ways to lose them.

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