Mirella Abou Shanab, a Damascus-based TV presenter and producer, went into a pastry shop in the Syrian capital and saw armed Islamist fighters eating ice cream and cake. One of them turned to her and asked if she was Christian, Druze or Shiite and whether that’s why she wasn’t wearing a veil.
“What I worry about is that this time it may be just a question, but next time action will be taken that may endanger my life and that of any girl or woman in Damascus,” she said in a live recording on Facebook late Tuesday, looking distraught and shaken.
While Syrians rejoice at the overthrow of ex-President Bashar Assad’s brutal dictatorship last weekend, concerns are mounting inside and outside the Arab nation at the pivotal role played by the one-time al-Qaeda affiliate that led the rebel offensive — and what they will do in power.
The new interim government, set to remain in place until March 1, is under the control of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, an Islamist group designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other countries. Its leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani, has sought to project a moderate image, and his interim prime minister has already met with foreign envoys in Damascus to promise a political transition.
“With this lighting war, thanks be to God almighty, we saved Syria and the entire region from an existential threat to many components of Syria’s population,” said Al-Jolani on Wednesday, seated on the carpeted floor of the Imam Shafiee Mosque, where he preached 20 years ago. “Syria faced the threat of partition,” he added, referring to Kurdish and Druze communities, who have sought autonomy in the east and south of Syria, respectively.
There are also deep religious fault lines. Syria’s population of about 24 million — half of which is displaced internally or has taken refugee in neighboring states — is nearly 70% Sunni Muslim and the rest is a mix of other faiths, including Christianity.
To allay fears, HTS commanders started an outreach in the capital and other major cities, holding meetings with community leaders, including members of non-Muslim groups. The militant group also issued a statement, prohibiting its fighters from interfering in personal liberties, particularly those of women.
“There is no reason for fear,” said Father Arsanios Lahham after a meeting with HTS commanders in the western coastal city of Tartous on Wednesday.
But Israel, for one, remains distrustful, mounting one of the biggest air attacks in its history to destroy as much as possible of the Syrian military’s capability. The country’s fighter planes have targeted chemical-weapons stocks, missile-storage sites and airbases and ships that might have been laden with weapons, looking to prevent them from falling into militant hands.
It also said it captured Syrian army tanks and weapons on Wednesday during a land incursion.
While the massive Israeli airstrikes have drawn Arab ire, the U.S. says it supports the Syrian neighbor’s right to protect its borders.
The “jury is out” on HTS and Jolani, Mike Waltz, U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump’s incoming national security advisor, said in a Fox News interview on Monday. “He’s not, at least so far, beheading former Assad regime officials or hanging them from bridges. They do seem to be sitting and talking, which is a very good initial first sign.”
“But President Trump and our team are watching very closely,” he added.
Islamic rule
In a CNN interview last week, Jolani didn’t rule out introducing Islamic rule in Syria. “People who fear Islamic governance either have seen incorrect implementations of it or do not understand it properly,” he said. He rejected fears about the future of Syria’s minorities, saying they “have existed for hundreds of years and no one has the right to eliminate them.”
Inside Syria, suspicion of HTS has grown since Jolani abruptly fired the last Assad-appointed prime minister, after initially saying he should remain in place in an interim capacity. His replacement is Mohammed Al Bashir, who previously ran a quasi-government in the northwestern rebel stronghold of Idlib.
Jolani appears to have sidelined other armed factions, including more moderate fighters from the south who were the first to enter Damascus on Saturday evening, sparking fears of looming infighting.
The outgoing Biden administration, which is claiming Assad’s ouster as a geopolitical win as it weakens the clout of the former Syrian dictator’s Iranian and Russian allies, has so far taken a relatively neutral stance.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington could recognize a new Syrian government that respects minorities and destroys stocks of chemical and biological weapons. And the State Department said Monday the terrorist designation doesn’t bar U.S. officials from speaking to leaders of HTS.
But it’s also worried about a potential resurgence of Islamic State, or ISIS, the U.S.-designated terrorist group that took advantage of the early years of the Syrian civil war to conquer large swathes of territory in the east of the country and neighboring Iraq. The U.S., which helped beat back the group toward the end of last decade, launched about 75 airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria over the weekend.
Complicating the picture is Turkey’s insistence on the withdrawal of U.S.-backed Kurdish armed fighters in northeast Syria, who it considers terrorists because of their links to separatists fighting for autonomy in Turkey’s southeast. The Kurdish militia is a key ally in the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State and is helping guard prisons filled with the group’s fighters.
The presence of 900 U.S. troops in Syria has helped to protect the Kurds, but there’s a chance Trump removes those forces as part of his drive to end U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts. Rebel groups backed by Turkey have already pushed Kurdish forces out of two northern Syrian towns.
“The worst case scenario is Syria becomes the Somalia of the Middle East,” said retired Brig Gen Nitzan Nuriel, who used to head the counter-terrorism department in the office of the Israeli Prime Minister. “Based on the experience in Afghanistan and Libya, we know that when regimes collapse and terror groups take over, there is a big chance they will take the ammunition systems and platforms and use them against neighbor states.”
A probe into potential Syrian nuclear-weapons activities has been interrupted by the ouster of Assad, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday, creating uncertainty for inspectors.
Many foreign-based Syrian opposition leaders, who have misgivings about Jolani’s first moves, are engaging with the rebels on the ground to try to shape what comes next.
“These are birth pains, it will take time,” said Ayman Abdel Nour, a Washington-based Syrian political opposition figure and commentator.
