Thursday,  December 12 , 2024

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News / Clark County News

Weather Eye: Dry weather likely to continue

By Patrick Timm, Columbian freelance columnist
Published: November 30, 2024, 6:05am

I hope you had a good Thanksgiving and had an opportunity to be with family and friends, which is always precious and wholesome. I wish we could have had clear blue skies and sunshine here locally, but it remained overcast and somewhat foggy all day. Vancouver had a high of only 43 degrees but many of you never made it out of the 30s. It felt like a gray mid-December day.

If you went up in elevation, some of our foothill locations had sunny weather all day — and overnight lows in the 20s. I expect that we will slowly develop some offshore wind, enough to stir the atmosphere and give us at least partly sunny skies over the weekend.

Extended weather forecast charts show dry weather to continue. Some models want to introduce some moisture by the end of next week but that is too far out to be certain at this time. Our November rainfall of 6.63 inches will be the final going into the record books for Vancouver, which is a little over an inch above average.

I read the other day that the expected increase in La Niña conditions, which has been slow to develop, may not be much of a factor in our weather this winter. It is quite weak now and it may slowly dissipate by January, and we go into what is called an ENSO neutral condition. Seems like we always have El Niño or La Niña to contend with each year. So, what can we expect in a so-called “normal” weather condition?

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral is when the tropical ocean water in the Pacific has normal sea temperatures of 75-80 degrees. This in turn causes normal or average winters across the U.S., with cold conditions in the Midwest and sometimes wet conditions in the South.

I chuckle as I try to remember back to when winters were normal. Normal in my book is a collection of extremes. Looking at record books I do find we have had more snowfall in these so-called neutral years. Of course, decades ago we really didn’t factor in El Niño or La Niña as many had little knowledge of the effect these temperatures in tropical waters could have on our jet stream.

OK, I can settle with some “normal” weather with ease and take it a day at a time.

Take good care everyone.

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Columbian freelance columnist