The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
Whether the 2025-27 state budget faces a crisis or a challenge depends almost always on the person making the assessment.
There probably will not be as much tax money to spend on all policies, programs and salaries the state has committed to, or so people who are paid to estimate such things have told lawmakers. At least, not as much tax money as they estimated a year ago.
Although a certain amount of guesswork is required to make revenue projections, estimating expenses is fairly simple math.
People who would like to revise the state’s tax system they consider too regressive might consider this a crisis that one should never let go to waste — an axiom variously attributed to Machiavelli, Winston Churchill, Saul Alinsky and Rahm Emmanuel but trotted out by politicians of all stripes when convenient.
For people who like the state’s tax system the way it is — or at least like it better than any increases to the current levels or a wholesale replacement they might face — it’s more likely to be viewed as a challenge that can be solved by understanding a bit of history.
That latter view seems to be the purpose of a new website called Washington Budget Breakdown, which details the steps that led to the current state of fiscal affairs, along with some resources to explain it further.
The website is the product of Enterprise Washington, a pro-business nonprofit that raised about $775,000 in 2023, the last year for which financial records are available, with a stated goal of providing “its businesses and association members with leading-edge research and strategies … to leverage their political resources and maximize their impact on the legislative process.”
Calling the state’s budget situation a crisis is incorrect, Enterprise Washington president Paul Graves contended in a recent interview. The state has a good economy and the amount of money the state is collecting on taxes is rising, just not as fast as once thought. That’s different from the recession of some 15 years ago, when revenue was declining year over year.
Although the organization is nonpartisan, the website aligns with longtime Republican views on the budget — that the state has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
As it correctly notes, the state is not really facing a deficit. Unlike the federal government, Washington cannot spend money it doesn’t have, which is a true deficit. The Legislature can’t even approve a budget that isn’t covered by the projected revenue estimates the experts release.
The info is well-sourced and footnoted, mainly from government sources. But it only takes the education effort so far.
“It feels a little unsatisfying,” Graves admitted. “But public education needs to be part of this.”
The November revenue forecast, which is the most recent, suggests there will be about $610 million less than legislators expected when they set spending for the current budget that ends June 30. But the current budget was based on a revenue projection of $66.4 billion, so it’s about 1 percent less than the previous projection.
The outlook for coming years is for less new revenue than previously projected while most expenses will rise. That will occupy the Legislature for much of the session, although the heavy lifting won’t happen until after March 20, when experts come up with new figures on how much money the state can expect for the next four years.
It might be easier to follow the debate drama armed with an understanding of the budget that Budget Breakdown provides. But remember it’s only half the equation because every major item in the state budget, whether schools, colleges, health care, and children’s services, has a constituency and no easily cut line-item labeled “Waste, Fraud and Abuse.” Small programs represent small savings, but even they have supporters who will fight to keep them.
Competition in such budget discussions brings to mind a saying the Rev. Jesse Jackson was fond of: “Everybody wants to go to heaven, but don’t nobody want to die.”
Morning Briefing Newsletter
Get a rundown of the latest local and regional news every Mon-Fri morning.
