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Can Washington’s farms survive? Labor shortages and deportation fears threaten agriculture

By Reneé Dìaz, The Wenatchee World
Published: January 19, 2025, 6:05am

WENATCHEE — In Washington State, agriculture is a cornerstone of the local economy, and labor shortages in agriculture have become a pressing concern. With the potential for mass deportations under policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump, farmers in Washington are facing tough questions. Could the state’s agricultural sector survive by depending on H-2A workers?

Washington State is home to more than 340,000 unauthorized immigrants, ranking ninth in the nation in 2022, according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics.

Many of these individuals work in the agricultural sector, worth over $12.8 billion annually in the state. There are over 35,900 farms, and 95% of these farms are family-owned, according to the Washington State Department of Agriculture.

The National Center for Farmworker Health estimates that more than 70% of agricultural workers nationally were born in another country, and many of them are undocumented. For farmers in Washington, losing this workforce would be catastrophic.

Jeff Luckstead, a professor of agricultural economics at Washington State University, warns that current labor shortages and rising costs are already straining farmers.

“The real issue is there’s this relatively small labor supply, and if mass deportation occurs, that’s going to shrink the labor supply further. Simple supply and demand tells us that’s going to drive the wage rate up. Even without this mass deportation, growers have been struggling to figure out ways to get around the labor issue. This is just going to make it worse.” said Luckstead.

Historically, U.S. horticultural production has relied heavily on migrant labor due to its seasonal and physically demanding nature, according to Karina Gallardo, a professor and extension specialist at Washington State University’s School of Economic Sciences. She said migration trends shifted dramatically after 2007, when the influx of immigrants peaked, followed by a net-zero migration rate.

“Many of these workers who originally filled essential agricultural roles are aging out of the physically intensive work, while others who settled in the U.S. seek year-round, higher-paying jobs in other industries,” Gallardo said. This decline in available labor has created a stark imbalance as agricultural demands grow, especially with modern high-density planting techniques requiring more intensive care.

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The federal H-2A visa program is designed to address labor shortages in agriculture by allowing growers to hire temporary workers from other countries. The program comes with extra costs on top of wages. Daryl Harnden, a grower in Cashmere and president of Harnden Orchards Inc., said for each worker under the H-2A program he incurs an average of an additional $2,200 to $2,300 in expenses, beyond wages.

“If you’re going to bring in 10 guys, that’s going to cost you about $22,000,” Harnden said.

The Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR), which sets the minimum hourly pay for H-2A workers, has risen significantly in Washington state over the years. In 2018, the AEWR was $14.12 per hour, and by 2024, it increased to $19.82 per hour, reflecting a 36% rise over six years. This rate is higher than Washington’s general minimum wage, $16.28 per hour in 2024. The escalating costs of the AEWR have added financial challenges for farmers utilizing the H-2A program in Washington.

“The program has increased dramatically,” said Gallardo. She said smaller farms that rely on local workers, including undocumented labor, face greater challenges. “The small farms that cannot afford the H-2A program may be the ones most affected,” said Gallardo. She included there is a need for more data to confirm these trends.

For larger agricultural operations, these costs might be manageable, for smaller family farms they are struggling.

“The organizations that own the orchards, the warehouses, the sale agencies–they can withstand these extra costs easier than the local family farmer,” Harnden said. “When regulations come down, costs come on, and they’re going up every year. There is no relief.”

Luckstead said that relying on H-2A workers is not a feasible solution. Deporting these workers would further reduce an already scarce labor pool, driving wages higher and putting additional financial strain on farmers.

“The issue with H-2A visas is they’re expensive for farmers. There is a large overhead cost. The consolidation of the Apple industry is already occurring. We are seeing larger farms buy up land from smaller farms. A mass deportation with smaller farms unable to take advantage of H-2A is just going to accelerate that,” Luckstead said.

A mixed workforce of domestic, undocumented, and H-2A workers has long been the norm in Washington agriculture. But as political pressure mounts to remove undocumented labor, farmers are left with few good options. Many are calling for a balanced policy approach that supports both the agricultural sector and its workers.

“Our growers need help,” Harnden said. “It’s a shame that there’s so much being put on them that they’re having to make decisions about whether they can even continue.”

Luckstead concluded that the ripple effects of mass deportation would not only harm farmers but also lead to higher prices for consumers. As input costs rise, farmers would need to raise prices to remain viable, contributing to inflation across various agricultural products. This scenario threatens Washington’s ability to stay competitive in the global market, particularly for high-quality apples, which the state is renowned for producing.

“What is this going to do to the price of apples? Any crop that utilizes these labors, ultimately the price is going to have to go up. If input prices go up the price of apples is ultimately going to have to go up eventually the farmers are not going to survive,” said Luckstead. “I think this will hinder Washington state’s ability to remain competitive, we have some of the best apple growing regions in the world. We produce high quality apples.”

As Washington’s agricultural sector grapples with these challenges, the question remains: Can farmers adapt or will rising costs and labor shortages push them to the brink? Without a reliable labor force, the agricultural sector of NCW and the communities they sustain may pay the price.

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