Washington is one of the nation’s top agriculture producers, led by Eastern Washington’s robust farming industry.
That means sweeping tariffs targeting the state’s biggest trading partners, and their own retaliatory measures, put Washington farms at particular risk of fallout.
The increased costs could eventually hit consumer pocketbooks as rising costs for manufacturers and grocers get passed on at the checkout lane.
Everything from groceries to aluminum to the material used to make drywall is expected to increase.
Those tariffs have kicked off a trade war, prompting anticipated retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico. Billions of dollars worth of Washington agriculture, manufacturing and tech exports could be caught in the crossfire.
On Thursday, Trump hinted at further delaying tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The uncertainty over when tariffs will go into effect, and what goods they’ll target, is also leaving many industries struggling to plan for them.
Why E. WA is at risk
The state’s $21 billion agriculture and food production industry is dominated by Central Washington.
Retaliatory tariffs on these products will mean the cost of the tariff is passed on to consumers in those markets, leaving U.S. fruit and food products more expensive and in lower demand.
It’s the same reason shoppers in the Tri-Cities will be paying more for avocados and tequila from Mexico once those fees go into effect.
If the tariffs remain in place, import costs tacked onto farm equipment, fuel and parts will eventually mean increased costs for growers, which could then lead to even further price increases for food.
Half of the agriculture workers in Washington are in a four-county region in South Central Washington, consisting of Yakima, Benton, Franklin and Grant counties where the Yakima Valley and Columbia Basin growing regions form the center of the state’s growing industry.
Policies that target agriculture and food production will have an out-sized impact on this side of the state and manufacturers in the Tri-Cities.
Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell has urged her colleagues to use their authority to regulate tariffs, rather than allowing the president to set policy, warning of dire effects on the state’s economy.
She also shot back at Trump for telling farmers to “have fun” in a social media post, a remark which he repeated in a speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday.
“Trump said to our farmers yesterday on Truth Social, quote, ‘tariffs will go on external products on April 2. Have fun.’ End quote,” Sen. Cantwell said in a news release. “‘Have fun?’ ‘Have fun?’ When retaliatory tariffs strike our farmers — just as they did in the first Trump administration — it’s not going to be fun, it’s going to be a nightmare for our farmers. And many of the farmers in my state worry (whether) they will be able to farm at all.”
Cantwell’s office wrote that retaliatory tariffs from India, once Washington’s second largest apple export market, cost growers hundreds of millions of dollars in trade during Trump’s first term in office. Apple exports to India dropped from $120 million in 2017 to less than $1 million by 2023.
While some mitigation funding will likely be available to help growers offset the cost of tariffs, historically it has only covered a small portion of their losses.
Washington cherry farmers received $24.5 million in mitigation payments in 2018, but lost between $60 million and $86 million.
Leading exports
It’s not just tree fruit flowing across the world from Washington, the state is also the second largest wine producer in the U.S. and cattle and milk products are a combined $2.6 billion industry.
In a preview of what the impact could look like in Washington, California wineries are already feeling the heat from the tariffs, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
Dairy producers will also be hit.
Darigold recently invested $600 million building a new processing plant in Pasco that will produce butter and high quality milk powder for protein drinks, infant formula and baked goods. Mexico and China are two of the biggest markets for the company, which is a consortium owned by about 300 Northwest dairy farms.
Canada is Washington state’s largest trade partner, China comes in at third and Mexico is fourth or fifth largest depending on the year. The vast majority of Washington’s fruit exports are to countries in Asia.
Washington exported $1.3 billion in agriculture products to Canada in 2023. That tally was led by fish and seafood ($321 million), fresh apples ($132 million), fresh onions ($70 million), frozen fruits ($63 million) and fresh cherries ($57 million).
Washington exported $857 million in food products to China in 2023. Those exports were led by beef ($207 million), seafood ($166 million), wheat ($105 million), hay ($103 million), legumes ($42 million) and cherries ($34 million).
Mexico bought $687 million in food products from Washington that year, led by Apples ($199 million), frozen french fries ($106 million), dairy ($52 million), nuts ($42 million), and fresh pears ($41 million).
Sweeping tariffs
Trump’s tariffs are sweeping. They’re expected to be implemented on virtually all imports from targeted trade partners.
That means prices for American consumers could increase on just about every item they buy.
The Capital Press reports that one-third of all potato seed used by growers in the Columbia River Basin come from Canada, which could impact potato prices across the board.
Marketplace.org estimates grocery costs could rise nearly 3% by the end of the year, costing families an average of $1,600 to $2,000 over the next year.
Aluminum tariffs could increase prices and cost the U.S. 20,000 aluminum jobs and 80,000 more in support industries, according to an analysis by Reuters.
Vehicle prices are expected to increase by thousands of dollars, though those fees have once again been put on hold.
While fuel prices are also likely to increase, the impact will be most noticeable in New England, the Rocky Mountain states, the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, according to Reuters.
Retaliatory tariffs
While expected retaliatory tariffs are narrower than those being levied by the U.S., many directly impact Washington agriculture and food production.
Canada has announced tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods. Those tariffs would hit items such as fruit juices, cherries, apricots, peaches, barley, rye, wheat, milk and milk products, cream, poultry, pork, eggs, wine and paper products.
China has announced tariffs that include chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products
Mexico is expected to announce its tariffs on Sunday though that plan may also be put on hold after recent negotiations. In 2018 their retaliatory tariffs included apples, potatoes and cheese.
