For the record, I liked it fine. As I wrote in January, what Ferguson is trying as governor is to “triangulate” between the two political parties, channeling the likes of former President Bill Clinton. As I recall, Clinton was pretty darn skilled on budget issues.
Nobody has attempted such political triangulation in years. We’re stuck in a political civil war of sorts — where moderation or working across the aisle are considered crimes punishable by primary.
Well, now there’s the first solid evidence that Ferguson’s Democratic base might — I repeat, might — be growing a little squeamish about his new centrist flair.
DHM Research is a Portland-based company that polls Washington four times a year. It did a poll in November, just after the election, that showed Ferguson had a plus-20 approval rating, 56 percent positive versus 36 percent negative. That included an overwhelming 86 percent vs. 10 percent endorsement from Democrats.
Since then, Ferguson has begun to “come back down to earth,” said DHM’s research director, Devin Bales.
In a poll released last month, DHM found Ferguson’s approval rating had softened to 42 percent to 32 percent — a net of plus-10 points.
Some of this drop was expected, as a winning politician is never more popular than on election night. A lot of the decline came from Democrats, though. The share of Ferguson’s own party who have positive feelings about him fell from 86 percent in November to 65 percent now.
Republicans were sour about Ferguson in both polls. But the poll found approval of the new governor has soared among self-identified independents.
Bales said many independents in Washington these days tend to be moderate or right-leaning voters who can’t abide the MAGA turn of the GOP. Ferguson seems to be resonating with them, while his own base softens.
“I think there’s a bit of feeling that his actions, the messaging he’s chosen as governor, are not what some people expected,” Bales said. “He’s presenting more as a realist, as a pragmatist. It isn’t fire-breathing Trump fighting, which is maybe more what Democrats had hoped they were getting.”
Ferguson has positioned himself as an antidote to extremes in both parties — which is supposedly what a lion’s share of voters say they want. But is it?
The same poll asked respondents to name the most important issue facing the state. Concerns about taxes ranked only ninth, while “budget/spending” ranked 13th. Nos. 1 and 2 were “homelessness/poverty” and “cost of living,” far outdistancing everything else. I haven’t noticed Ferguson or state Democrats proposing strong new action so far on either of these top issues.
Appealing to independents might make editorial boards or chambers of commerce swoon, while leaving the Democratic base cold. That’s a risk in a blue state getting bluer.
The poll also sent up a warning flare. In Washington, Elon Musk and his chainsawing of the federal budget clocks in with a minus-18-point approval rating. Among Democrats, Musk is an irredeemable 70 points underwater, and with independents he’s minus 29. Meanwhile, Republicans love what Musk is doing to the tune of plus 58.
Ferguson is going old-school to try to straddle the two parties on budget issues. But when they’re this far apart, he might just end up doing the splits.
