In our view: Half-Empty Glasses

Yes, Clark County’s unemployment rate dropped more than one percentage point to 12 percent in September, but wise local residents will keep the confetti in the sack. At best, the story atop Page A1 in Wednesday’s Columbian warrants a sarcastic big-whoop response.

The latest report from Scott Bailey, regional labor economist for the state Employment Security Department notes that, overall, recent statistics “brought little comfort.” His eight-page report also includes such phrases as “If you’re poor, it’s a depression … economy slowing … Unemployment is high, and job creation is stagnant. The number of new unemployment claims filed each month, while lower than a year ago, is still at recession levels.”

Indeed, every half-full glass on the local jobs table is offset by one or two half-empty vessels:

o Half-full — 1,800 people found jobs in Clark County in September. Good for them. We can only imagine the relief and exhilaration they feel, especially as the holidays approach.

o Half-empty — But Bailey forecasts a “long, cold winter” on the local jobs scene. More than 1,900 area residents “have already exhausted their benefits, and thousands more will join them in the coming months.”

o Half-full — That 12 percent local unemployment rate is the lowest in almost two years, since January 2009.

o Half-empty — But our jobless rate remains highest among the state’s 39 counties, and the estimated number of local residents who are jobless and looking for work — about 25,600 — is about the same as last September.

o Half-full — Local hiring was up in K-12 education last month.

o Half-empty — Operative words are “last month.” This was a seasonal increase, relatively insignificant, and school districts are still limping along with massive financial challenges.

o Half-full — Local hiring also was up last month in leisure and hospitality; arts, entertainment and recreation; and manufacturing.

o Half-empty — However, one job category considered key to recovery — professional and business services — cut 200 jobs last month. And here’s a relatively obscure fact that carries huge local consequences: An estimated 5,000 to 10,000 Clark County residents are jobless but remain unseen in Washington state’s statistics because they’re collecting unemployment benefits from Oregon.

About the only good news we can find in all of this gloom is Bailey and his office keep the public well informed, even if the bulk of that information is depressing. For example, Bailey’s report also uses three facts to refute the myth “that unemployment benefits allow claimants to avoid getting a job, and that once their benefits run out, they will find a job, albeit perhaps at a lower wage than before, and so we have nothing to worry about.”

First, average monthly unemployment benefits are about $1,400, or about $8 per hour, which “isn’t much of an incentive for avoiding work.” Second, we should worry because, even if jobs were suddenly created at the record pace of 2005, “it would take two to three years to absorb the unemployed and bring rates down to a reasonable level.” Third, there are only 1,999 jobs available in Southwest Washington, thus “there simply aren’t very many open jobs out there.”

The long slog continues. For those Clark County residents who have jobs, count your blessings. Also, consider increasing your charitable contributions — time and energy, if not financial — through the holiday season.