Many apologies to Adam Wainwright.
A year ago, when we examined which pitchers have the best careers ahead of them, Wainwright inadvertently was left off the list.
Now, he’s out for the 2011 season following elbow surgery. I blame myself.
Wainwright’s injury points out the fickle nature of assessing the future of a pitcher. They are injury prone; they are inconsistent; they are subject to more ups and downs than a roller coaster.
But that won’t stop us from tackling a most futile topic: Predicting which pitchers will have the most remaining value in their careers. In making such an assessment, we considered the pitcher’s age and performance over the past three seasons.
Here’s the list:
1 — Felix Hernandez, Mariners
King Felix might be the best pitcher in the game, and he just turned 25.
But don’t start forging that Hall of Fame plaque just yet. Through their 24-year-old seasons, Hernandez’s statistics are most comparable to Dennis Eckersley, Dave Boswell, Gary Nolan, Don Drysdale, and Bret Saberhagen. Eckersley is in the Hall as a reliever, and Drysdale was a marginal selection. The others are not close to Hall-of-Fame caliber.
Fernando Valenzuela is eighth on Hernandez’s comparable list, although he might have been the oldest 24-year-old in history.
A lot can happen between here and Cooperstown. The good news is that Hernandez has a very high strikeout rate and an excellent strikeout/walk ratio — two indications that a pitcher will age well.
2 — Tim Lincecum, Giants
After winning Cy Young Awards at the ages of 24 and 25, it’s no surprise Lincecum is high on this list.
He struggled a bit last year — by his standards — with his ERA jumping from 2.48 in 2009 to 3.43. But he still led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings, indicating that there was nothing severely wrong.
3 — Jon Lester, Red Sox
The past three years, Lester is 50-23 with ERAs between 3.21 and 3.41 and at least 200 innings each season. The past two years, he has ranked second and first in the AL in strikeouts per nine innings.
4 — Ubaldo Jiménez, Rockies
Jiménez was terrific in 2010, going 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, but I’m not entirely sold. He was 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA after the All-Star break, and his overall numbers weren’t that much different from the previous year, when he had a 3.47 ERA.
That’s still very good, but don’t expect him to consistently pitch at a Hernandez/Lincecum level.
5 — Josh Johnson, Marlins
Pop quiz: Who led the NL in ERA last year? It was Johnson, with a 2.30 mark. That gave him a 33-12 record over the past three years with a 2.94 ERA. And his strikeout rate has improved each of that last two seasons.
6 — Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Last year, at the age of 22, Kershaw struck out 212 batters in 204 innings and compiled a 2.91 ERA. The previous season, he threw 171 innings.
That’s a lot of innings for a young arm, but if he stays healthy, he will have a great career ahead of him.
7 — Matt Cain, Giants
Cain’s career record of 59-63 masks his excellence. His career ERA+ is 26 percent better than the league average, ranking ahead of Zack Grienke and CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander, to name a few.
8 — Jered Weaver, Angels
Weaver took a big leap last year at the age of 27. He strikeouts increased dramatically, enough to lead the AL, and his ERA dropped precipitously.
He has a unique throwing motion, which could lead to injury problems down the line, but right now he’s one of the game’s elite pitchers.
9 — John Danks, White Sox
Danks has been durable and effective each of the past three years (40-31, 3.61), but he’s not as overpowering as the other guys on this list.
10 — Zach Grienke, Brewers
Don’t know whether Grienke can return to his awesome 2009 form, but he should be very good for a very long time.
He’s on the disabled list right now with a broken rib, and his return will be crucial in determining his future. He’s moving to a new team, and he has a well-documented social-anxiety disorder that might make him more fragile than the typical pitcher.
Others — 11. Justin Verlander; 12. Roy Halladay (yes, he’s 33, but every indication is that he has several outstanding seasons ahead of him); 13. Cole Hamels; 14. David Price; 15. Joakim Soria; 16. Dan Haren; 17. Gavin Floyd; 18. Clay Buchholz; 19. Cliff Lee; 20. Johan Santana; 21. Roy Oswalt; 22. Andrew Bailey; 23. Tommy Hanson; 24. CC Sabathia; 25. Adam Wainwright (make up for last year’s oversight).
Question or comment for By the Numbers? You can reach Greg Jayne, Sports editor of The Columbian, at 360-735-4531, or by e-mail at Greg.Jayne@columbian.com. To read his blog, go to columbian.com/weblogs/GregJayne
