Despite the proliferation of highfalutin baseball statistics in recent years, with VORP and OPS and WAR, the basics of the game are still measured by counting stats.
How many home runs did Jose Bautista hit? How many hits does Ichiro Suzuki have? How many games can Jered Weaver win?
The answers are simple and readily understood and easily celebrated. Nobody cheers when Alex Rodriguez gets his career Wins Above Replacement to 100, because nobody cheers for stat geeks.
But among the counting stats, the one that remains the most deceptive is saves.
It’s the basic measurement of a relief pitcher — how many times did he enter a relatively close game and nail down the win? And yet it often can be misleading, because not all saves are created equal.
They’re largely a function of being on a good team that provides a lot of save opportunities, and playing for a manager who uses his closer in a way that is conducive to compiling big save totals.
Let’s start at the top, with Francisco Rodriguez’s 62 saves for the Angels in 2008. That’s five more saves than anybody else has ever recorded in a season, breaking the record of 57 by Bobby Thigpen in 1990.
Yet Rodriguez wasn’t even the best reliever in the American League in 2008. With a 2.24 ERA, Rodriguez had a park-adjusted ERA+ of 199, meaning his ERA was 99 percent better than the average AL pitcher that season.
The same year, the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera had 39 saves but an ERA+ of 319 — more than 200 percent better than the average pitcher. Joe Nathan of the Twins had 39 saves and an ERA+ of 316. Joakim Soria of the Royals had 42 saves and an ERA+ of 273.
All of them were more effective than Rodriguez, yet their save totals were nowhere near his.
Rodriguez pitched for a team that won 100 games and won its division, and he played for a manager — Mike Scioscia — who was hell-bent on racking up big save totals for his closer.
Not once during that season did Rodriguez pitch more than one inning.
He entered the game 76 times, and in 69 of them he had a save opportunity. On 31 occasions, he picked up a save by getting three outs with a lead of at least two runs. How difficult can that be for a competent closer?
Compare that with Rivera, who appeared in 64 games that season and on 15 occasions got more than three outs — including four outings of two innings.
And that was just during the regular season. In the postseason, Rivera has earned his legendary status by becoming the master of the six-out save. Of the 94 playoff appearances in his career, he has pitched more than one inning in 58 of them.
Comparing any reliever to Rivera is like comparing any Vegas lounge singer to Sinatra. It’s patently unfair.
But Rodriguez’s record-setting 2008 season does point out the fickleness of save totals. Last year, Brian Wilson of the Giants led the majors with 48 saves and he earned them, compiling an ERA+ of 226 and recording 10 saves of more than three outs.
The lesson is simple: For assessing the effectiveness of a closer, save totals leave much to be desired.
