Oregon officials mull ‘sister counties’ for quake response

THE DALLES, Ore. — Some geologists have calculated a 10 to 14 percent probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the Oregon and Washington coasts will produce an earthquake event of magnitude 9 or higher in the next 50 years. Others suggest that this risk could be as high as 37 percent for earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher. Such a quake could generate a 50-foot tsunami.

Although such a large earthquake would be felt in The Dalles, where residents are warned to prepare for as long as three weeks without electricity or fuel, geologists say damage on the coast would be catastrophic, and potentially devastating in the Willamette Valley as well.

In response, Oregon has initiated an extensive emergency planning response, with short-term planning exercises already underway throughout the state and a large-scale exercise planned for 2016. Part of that planning involves the potential establishment of mutual-aid style “sister county” partnerships between counties east of the Cascade Mountains, where damage will be limited, and counties on the coast.

The plan is not to shift physical resources between counties, but provide public works leadership following a disaster. The idea is the brainchild of Tillamook County Planning Director Liane Welch, who is also part of the Association of County Engineers and Surveyors.

She argued that public works departments on the coast have limited staff and during a disaster of this magnitude they would themselves become victims of the event, leaving a leadership void following the earthquake and tsunami.

She proposed the “Sustainable Sister Counties” agreement to allow a public works team from east of the mountains to be flown in by helicopter to take over initial management of local critical resources and coordinate state and federal assistance.

The “sister counties” would respond with assistance in the first 48 hours following an earthquake. The response would be designed for a 5- to 7-day self-sufficient deployment, with the ability to extend: Sister Counties would receive the highest life safety priority for seats on state and federal helicopters going to the coastal county.

Each coastal county would link in this way to a second county in the Willamette Valley and a third county east of the Cascade Range.

The Wasco County board of commissioners has agreed to look into a possible “sister county” relationship, said Arthur Smith, the public works interim director for the county. “This is not about sending road equipment or rock to the coast; it’s about filling a leadership void,” Smith said. “The public works leadership on the coast will be victims, and unable to respond.” The proposal doesn’t involve money or physical resources, he added. “It’s putting some of our local road guys in helicopters.”

The plan would link the three counties, and together they would define disaster response priorities, resources, incident command, and how state and federal resources should be directed. A similar plan would be made in reverse, should a county in the valley or east of the mountains suffer from a severe storm or fire disaster and need help from the other counties.

Once such a partnership is established, the counties will familiarize themselves with the needs and resources of each and meet every year to review plans. “We’re all brothers and sisters, I think it’s a great idea,” said Smith. “There is already a lot of synergy between counties, in emergency response. I could see a team of three to five responding to the coast, depending how significant the event was,” he said.

Kristy Beachamp, emergency manager for Wasco County, which is a department within the Wasco County Sheriff’s office, said such a partnership could have value to Wasco County. “It’s a reciprocity agreement, we promise to do the best we can,” she said, provided local resources are not also overwhelmed.

In the event of a subduction zone earthquake, the current vulnerability analysis for Wasco County shows no casualties or death and no buildings extensively damaged, but more than $31 million in economic damages, she said. Local damage will be limited to isolated pockets, depending largely on soil type and construction methods, Beachamp said.

“There would be some localized damage, for instance historical structures in The Dalles could be damaged,” said Beachamp. “It’s all based on what the earth is like. In The Dalles, the ground could liquefy, which could cause significant damage.”

Other nearby areas will be largely unaffected because the soil is shallow or buildings sit directly on bedrock.

Electricity could be interrupted for as long as three weeks, however, Beachamp said. “That’s problematic, because all of our utilities run on electricity,” she added.

Transportation of fuel and goods could also be delayed.

When it comes to planning for emergencies in Wasco County, earthquakes — even a Cascadia subduction zone quake of massive proportions — are not high on the hazard list, which is based on history, vulnerability and magnitude of the threat of death. Severe winter weather is the top risk in Wasco County, followed by public health emergencies (disease), drought (financial impact), wildfire, flood, hazardous material release and — well down the list at number 8 — earthquakes.