BOGOTA, Colombia — Venezuela’s opposition has promised to hold a huge demonstration in the capital Sept. 1, demanding a presidential recall during a deep political and economic crisis that has many going hungry and emotions on edge.
One question looms: Will the military allow the protest?
“We’re betting that it will be the largest gathering in the country’s history, and the armed forces are going to have to choose,” said opposition deputy Armando Armas. “Are they really on the side of the people and the constitution?”
No one knows for sure whether the military will stand by as people are bused into Caracas to exercise their right to peaceful dissent. But many Venezuelans fear the armed forces are likely to close ranks around the administration and do their best to keep the protesters from turning into a meaningful mass.
The military has many reasons to support President Nicolas Maduro, including duty, prestige and perks. They have their own food distribution systems, so they don’t have to suffer through the daylong lines that average citizens face. And they also have their own hospitals — presumably ones that aren’t lacking medicine and supplies.
Analysts say the military’s privileges and future are so tied to the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela that they’ve lost their primary function as defenders of the constitution.
The military has so much power, and so many economic and political interests, that “we’re living in a barracks nation,” said Luis Alberto Butto, director of the Latin American Center for Security Studies at Simon Bolivar University in Caracas.
Eleven of the country’s 20 ruling-party governors are ex-military, and 12 Cabinet positions are also in the hands of either active or retired military officers. The military owns television stations, cargo companies, insurance firms, import-export enterprises and other businesses.
“The military is a preponderant force, politically, economically and in the corporate world, and they’re out to defend their interests,” Butto said. “Under these circumstances, democracy is something of a myth, a symbol. It’s not real. And that’s Venezuela’s reality right now.”
Since Hugo Chavez, a former tank commander, won the presidency in 1999 and brought his colleagues with him, the military’s star has risen. When Maduro — a former bus driver and union organizer — succeeded Chavez’s successor in 2013, many wondered what would happen to the military’s power. Maduro himself, in December, talked about the need to “demilitarize” the administration.
That never happened.
