BEIRUT — Russia’s plan to withdraw forces from Syria is sending a strong message to President Bashar Assad, whose hard-line stance is diverging from Moscow’s interest in declaring its intervention in the country a success while also accelerating peace efforts.
Having dramatically turned the tide of war in Assad’s favor with five months of intense bombardment of his foes, President Vladimir Putin is pressuring the Syrian leader to engage them in more meaningful dialogue in talks that have begun in Geneva.
“There was an overlap in interests in the last few months. Now they (the Russians) are telling Assad, ‘this is where we start to diverge, and you’ve got to step up to your responsibilities, you can’t rely on us forever,’ ” said Maha Yahya, acting director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
With an announcement that appeared to take even senior Russian commanders by surprise, Putin ordered most of the estimated 3,000 to 6,000 personnel to begin withdrawing from Syria on Tuesday, a step that raised hopes for progress at newly reconvened U.N.-brokered peace talks in Geneva.
At a televised meeting Monday with his foreign and defense ministers, Putin said Moscow’s intervention had fulfilled its objectives by allowing Assad’s military to “radically” turn the tide of war. He added that the move should help serve as a stimulus for Syria’s political talks.
Russia deployed its air force to Syria in September to prop up Assad’s faltering military, which has been waging a five-year war against internal opponents and jihadist militants.
Although its stated goal was to fight Islamic State militants and other terrorists, much of the Russian campaign has targeted mainstream rebels and helped eject them from core areas considered strategic for Assad’s survival, thereby safeguarding Moscow’s interests in the country.
While the operation has restored momentum for Assad’s forces, Syrian forces have been unable to regain areas in Idlib province in the north or completely encircle rebels in the contested city of Aleppo, for instance.
The timing of the Russian withdrawal, just as peace talks were resuming, offered Putin an opportune moment to declare the bulk of Moscow’s involvement to be over, while acting as a peacemaker and helping ease tensions with NATO member Turkey and the Gulf monarchies vexed by the Kremlin’s military action.
By also pacifying the opposition, Putin has set up the groundwork for what is shaping up to be the best opportunity so far to advance the talks between the two warring sides.
The U.N.’s Syria envoy, Staffan de Mistura, said it is a “significant development, which we hope will have a positive impact on the progress of the negotiations in Geneva.”
