CHICAGO — After Thanksgiving — assuming families survive the political standoffs expected to plague dinner tables across the country — America will officially launch its annual shopping spree, saddled not only with turkey hangover this year but also election malaise.
As the nation tries to transition from rancor to merriment, retailers are watching to see if the feelings of doom or elation that have divided the populace will affect how people spend during the industry’s most critical quarter.
Historically, elections haven’t had much impact on consumer spending, but experts say this election, extraordinary for the shock of Donald Trump’s long-shot win as well as the viciousness of the rhetoric, could be different.
Will optimistic Trump supporters race to the mall? Will grieving Hillary Clinton supporters opt to stay curled in balls of despair? Will the uncertainty of what may come in the Trump era cause everyone to cut back their shopping lists? Will eggnog have a good year?
No one knows, of course. And whether heightened post-election emotions make a dent in spending depends on how long they persist into the holiday season.
But Eileen Knauff, for one, expects to fill her shopping basket a bit differently.
Knauff, 22, who lives in suburban Chicago, did not sink into the mass depression that consumed many of her friends after Trump’s surprise win. But as she hits the stores for holiday shopping, she plans to keep those friends, many of them in the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community and concerned their rights are at risk, in mind.
“I’m trying to get more meaningful gifts, something I know they’ll appreciate,” said Knauff, who is working as a restaurant hostess while she applies to graduate school.
“Make the holidays as good as can be before everything goes south.”‘
Future with Trump
The vast majority of Americans — 81 percent — said in a survey a day after the election that the result won’t change their planned holiday spending, as most believed the economic impact of Trump’s policies won’t be felt until next year, according to Conlumino, a research agency and consulting firm focused on retail and consumer behavior.
The nation is split on whether the Trump administration will make households worse or better off in the long run, with slightly more thinking household finances will become more favorable, the survey found. But that doesn’t mean they’ll spend more today, said John Yozzo, managing director at FTI Consulting.
“It’s all very murky at this point,” Yozzo said.
Holiday shopping forecasts had been positive pre-election, thanks to strong economic indicators including low unemployment rates, positive wage growth and an overall stability of commodity prices, such as gas and food, that offset increases in health care costs, said Steve Barr, U.S. retail leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
PwC, which in a survey found that Americans expected to spend 10 percent more this year than last, was anticipating the best holiday season since the start of the Great Recession.
Whether the uncertainty or intensity of emotion triggered by this election changes the outlook remains to be seen.
“I think we all need to watch and see what happens with consumer sentiment over the coming weeks,” Barr said.
A PwC analysis of election cycles over the past 20 years found no meaningful trends in holiday shopping after elections, Barr said.
Other research has shown election outcomes can affect people’s perceptions of the economy, but not how much they actually spend.
Even if there is a consistent negative trend in consumer sentiment going into the holidays, Barr said, shoppers could shift their dollars from gifts to more experiential items, such as concerts or dinner out, that allow people to feel connected during challenging times.
In deep blue Chicago, some retailers said obsessive focus on the election and the grim mood in its aftermath kept shops quiet in the days surrounding Nov. 8.
Albert Karoll, owner of Richard Bennett Custom Tailors & Shirtmakers, was optimistic that funk would lift, despite a “palpable sense, even among clients that are Republican voters, that damage has been done to the national psyche that may not heal so quickly.”
The wound might even spur more buying, he said.
