The White House is already moving forward with its plan to construct a massive wall along the southern border of the country. But new research suggests the influx of low-skilled immigrants is already dropping, as forces that are far more powerful than a wall act to keep immigrants out.
In a new paper, economists at the University of California San Diego argue one of the main factors boosting immigration to the United States from Latin America in recent decades — a growing supply of workers in Latin American countries — has already dried up.
The paper looks at changes in economic conditions, border enforcement and demographics in the United States and Latin America to try to isolate the factors that encourage people to migrate. It finds a strong relationship between the number of people born in Latin American and Caribbean countries and the percent change in immigrant to the U.S. between 1980 and 2015.
For decades, Latin America was still experiencing a baby boom when the U.S. was not. While the U.S. baby boom ended in the 1960s, Mexico and other Latin American countries continued to see a surge in population into the 1970s and 1980s. By the early 1980s, the supply of labor in the U.S. was beginning to slow as the Baby Boomers aged, but that same change didn’t occur in Latin America until two decades later.
During the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, that created a dynamic where low-skilled people in Latin America could do better economically by avoiding tougher competition at home and seeking out work opportunities in the U.S., say researchers Gordon Hanson, Chen Liu and Craig McIntosh.
Today, the populations of most Latin American countries have begun aging, just like the U.S. And America’s population of immigrations from Latin America and Asia are growing older as well. In 1980, the median age of a Mexican-born person in the United States was around 20. In 2015, it had doubled to 40. By 2040, the researchers predict it could be roughly 70, as the chart below shows.
The researchers argue that aging populations will give low-skilled workers from those countries less motivation to immigrate to the U.S., even without a massive border wall, as there will be reduced competition for jobs in their homes. They calculate the number of young, low-skilled workers coming into the United States from Latin America will continue to slow in coming decades.
As a result, much of the current debate about low-skilled immigration into the U.S., including discussions about building a massive border wall, are aimed at a situation that has already largely changed, the researchers say.
“The current U.S. debate about immigration policy has a backward-looking feel to it,” they write.
