There’s only one big, wild, crazy and utterly absorbing bit of speculation facing Sunday’s 69th Emmy awards telecast. Just one: Who will unseat Julia?
Make that two. Will anyone unseat Julia?
Julia, of course, is Julia Louis-Dreyfus, the most honored comedy actress in television history, who has five straight wins for “Veep.” All of those were deserved. A sixth would be deserved, too.
Actress in a comedy series
Pamela Adlon (“Better Things,” FX) As wonderful as Adlon is in this underrated, underwatched series, she’s the longest of long shots.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep,” HBO) There’s nothing about Louis-Dreyfus’ performance this past season that suggested “tired,” or “been-there-done-that.” She was great, as usual, so was the show.
Jane Fonda (“Grace and Frankie,” Netflix) The ridiculous thing about Fonda’s presence here is also the ridiculous thing about co-star Lily Tomlin’s — they’re both equally good on the show, and as a result, voters may have simply canceled out their votes for each.
Allison Janney (“Mom,” CBS) Could Janney make history Sunday? She won for supporting actress in a comedy in 2014 and ’15, and the Emmy gods allowed her to enter in the lead category this year.
Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” Netflix.) Insanely talented and funny Kemper is now an Emmy staple, awaiting official validation from the TV Academy. Given the crowd she’s up against, the wait is likely to continue.
Tracee Ellis Ross (“black-ish,” ABC) Ross’ Golden Globe win earlier this year may have worked against her. The contrarian Emmys rarely like to reinforce a Globe victory with a follow-up Emmy, no matter how deserving.
Lily Tomlin (“Grace and Frankie,” Netflix) A Tony, Grammy, Golden Globe, Oscar nod, and a couple of major Emmy wins a few dozen years ago. What’s missing in this spectacular career? An outstanding actress win, darn it. That’s what.
SHOULD WIN: Tomlin. One great comedy actress upsetting another great comedy actress? No one would complain about that, including Louis-Dreyfus.
WILL WIN: Louis-Dreyfus. As remarkable as her competition is here, none of these performances rose to the level of “upset.” The streak continues.
Actor in a comedy series
Anthony Anderson (“black-ish,” ABC) This is Anderson’s third consecutive nomination, and the simple — or impossible — question before voters is, did his performance this past season surpass the other two enough to unseat Jeffrey Tambor? My sense is that he had his best shot in 2016.
Aziz Ansari (“Master of None,” Netflix) An Ansari victory would be historic — the first major Emmy comedy actor won by an Indian American. Problem is, Emmy voters don’t always view awards in terms of history.
Zach Galifianakis (“Baskets,” FX) Galifianakis certainly belongs in this group, but a win on Sunday seems about as likely as the moon falling into the Atlantic Ocean next week.
Donald Glover (“Atlanta,” FX). The autobiographical comedy-drama has been around awhile, but Glover gave the genre new life and relevance.
William H. Macy (“Shameless,” Showtime) Maybe you, certainly me, and definitely the entire audience at the Microsoft Theater would stand and cheer if the name “William H. Macy” is called out Sunday. He’s been nominated six times.
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent,” Amazon Prime) Tambor’s in a particularly strong position. He has two wins behind him, and a possible third ahead. He’s the one to beat, but is he unbeatable?
SHOULD WIN: Macy. If the world and the Emmys were fair, that would happen. But they’re not.
WILL WIN: Tambor. Streaks are a funny thing in the comedy category. They tend to keep on going if the streaker is deserving. Tambor is.
