In Our View: Clout in Congress

Four days before Christmas, the Census Santa made his once-a-decade flight on Tuesday and left lots of shiny presents for political junkies. But be careful not to judge a gift by its wrapping.

For example, Republicans nationwide are giddy with excitement over Congressional gains in states that lean heavily toward the GOP. As many as seven of eight states that will have new chairs in Congress are either solidly or somewhat conservative. They include Texas (four new seats) and Florida (two), plus five states with one new Congressional seat each: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and Utah. However, most of those states have shown strong population gains among minority ethnic groups, particularly Hispanics, especially in Texas. And minority groups often (but not always) lean toward the Democratic Party. Census details to be released later will specify the gains among ethnic groups, and a more meaningful conclusion can be drawn then.

Here in Washington state (the eighth state on the list, with one new seat in Congress), Democrats are doubly invigorated. First, the state is traditionally blue, at least in the past several years. Second, population gains in the past decade have been largely in the Puget Sound region, which is even more prone to vote for Democrats. Again, though, be careful about jumping to conclusions. Our state has a relatively nonpartisan method of redistricting, with a bipartisan appointed commission.

You can count on the partisan “Cascade Curtain” remaining in place, with a conservative eastern part of the state against a largely liberal western half. But there could be GOP gains in some parts of our state, and Clark County is one of those places where a conservative shift could occur. Speculation is that our 3rd Congressional District could lose the Thurston County portion that includes the larger part of Olympia, and that’s the bluest part of the 3rd.

How else, then, could the 3rd be affected by redistricting? One theory is that the 3rd could pick up Klickitat County, generally considered eastern Washington, certainly conservative in voting habits. If Republican Party leaders in Clark County and other areas of Southwestern Washington are shrewd planners, they’ll be ready to quickly exploit these gains when the details of redistricting are announced in 2012.

But here are a couple of shiny presents from the Census Santa that all Washingtonians — regardless of partisan persuasion — should celebrate: We’re picking up a vote in the Electoral College and will now have 12, one for each House seat plus the two Senate seats. A little bump in clout will be nice in presidential elections. And, our state will have twice the power of Oregon in the U.S. House of Representatives, at least in the number of seats. Oregon gained no seats in the new Census report, which means Washington will have 10 representatives to our neighbor state’s five. That boost in stature could come in handy when it comes to competing for federal dollars and facilities in the Northwest. Of course, more meaningful than just these numbers are how influential those members of Congress actually become.

Washington’s Redistricting Commission will have all year to draw lines for the 10 Congressional and 49 Legislative districts, followed by the rush of candidates who are waiting to run in those new districts. The speculation will be fun, and the outcome will be interesting. But more than anything, what happened Tuesday and what will unfold over the next couple of years should stir everyone’s patriotism. We have great reason for confidence in the capacity of Americans — as guided by the Founding Fathers — to govern ourselves, with the built-in flexibility that the decennial redistricting process brings us.