Saturday was a typical gray, drizzly winter day, although we are still in the midst of autumn.
We might see similar conditions today, as moisture riding over a large area of high pressure in the Pacific Ocean slides into the Pacific Northwest.
Freezing levels are currently quite high, which leaves mountain passes and ski areas in the rain.
Cooler weather might be on its way soon. Computer forecast models are still showing a major cooling period beginning this weekend and lingering through Thanksgiving. This will provide the right conditions for ample snowfall in the mountains, possibly allowing ski season to officially get under way Thanksgiving weekend. At least, that is the plan.
And depending on how things line up, we could get some snow at lower elevations, possibly dropping snow levels to 500 to 1,000 feet in a week to 10 days. But, of course, we will tread lightly on the making forecasts that far out.
In the latest newsletter from the Office of the Washington State Climatologist (http://www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter/2010Nov.pdf), meteorologists presented the results of a study on average snowfall during years with La Niña, El Niño and neutral weather patterns from the winter of 1950-51 through 2009-10 (http://www.climate.washington.edu/events/2010lowlandsnow).
Vancouver, where the annual average snowfall is 4.1 inches, gets an average of 5.2 inches of snow in a La Niña winter; 1.1 inches in an El Niño year; and 5.5 inches in a neutral weather year. So just because we are in a La Niña winter, which is often cold and wet, the snowfall average is not all that high.
And speaking of snow, I received an e-mail from local resident Nicoletta Natta-Graf, who offers this insight into the coming winter.
“We have a feline that is gaining a lot of weight this fall, just like (he did) two falls ago. He has tufted ears, large paws (and) markings that remind (me) a bit of a small lynx. I call Tiger our feline weather forecaster. … His tummy girth says snow and maybe more than just a dusting! (This is ) my old-fashioned way of predicting the weather.”
Well, maybe her cat will see more snowballs than furballs this winter. Thanks, Nicoletta.
I’m looking forward to an interesting weekend.
Pat Timm is a local weather specialist. His column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. Reach him at http://weathersystems.com.
