Longoria ranks first for highest value for rest of career

It’s time for a little fantasy baseball.

No, not the kind where you draft players and then follow their real-life stats. This is the kind in which all major-leaguers suddenly are free agents, all contracts are lifetime deals, and you have more money than Bill Gates.

See? We told you this was a fantasy.

For the second year in a row, we’re going to determine which players have the most remaining value in their careers. In other words, if all players were free agents and money were no object, which one would warrant the largest contract?

We looked at each player’s production over the past three seasons — with more weight given to 2010 than 2009, and more weight given to 2009 than 2008. We looked at their age. We looked at how quickly they can be expected to grow old.

And then we determined which active players will have the most productive careers from this point forward.

This isn’t speculation. We aren’t ranking Dustin Ackley because he’s supposed to be good. We’re only ranking major-leaguers who are good, and in most cases young.

And we aren’t ranking pitchers; we’ll get to them next week.

Is a 27-year-old Hanley Ramirez a more valuable property than a 31-year-old Albert Pujols? Is a 24-year-old Andrew McCutchen worth more than a 31-year-old Matt Holliday? Let’s find out.

Here are the position players who would deserve the largest free-agent contracts if you could have them for the remainder of their careers:

1) Evan Longoria, 3B, Devil Rays

Having turned 25 last October, Longoria has three full major-league seasons under his belt and has improved in each of them.

He is a three-time All-Star, has two Gold Gloves, hits for power, hits for a decent average, and walks a good amount. And his walk/strikeout ratio has improved each season, indicating growth as a hitter.

One of the strongest indicators that a player will age well is good speed. Longoria isn’t Usain Bolt, but he was 16 for 16 on stolen-base attempts his first two years, and then went 15 for 20 last season.

2) Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

Ramirez was No. 1 on this list a year ago, but he had a relatively disappointing 2010 to fall behind Longoria.

Still, he’s a great player, maybe the best in baseball, and he turned 27 in December. In six seasons, he has 124 homers, 196 stolen bases, a .313 batting average, and a .520 slugging percentage.

And did we mention that he’s a shortstop.

3) Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals

There’s not much I can tell you that you don’t know about Pujols. How about this: Through their 30-year-old seasons, the most comparable hitters to Pujols are Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Lou Gehrig, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, and Mel Ott.

Enough said.

4) Joe Mauer, C, Twins

Make no mistake — catchers don’t age well. But Mauer is 27 (he turns 28 next week), and he is one of the great hitting catchers in history. He should have a very productive decade remaining.

According to baseball-reference.com, Mauer’s Offensive Winning Percentage from 2006-2010 was .683. Among catchers, only Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, and Bill Dickey have had a better five-year stretch.

5) Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers

Now 27, Braun has averaged these numbers per 162 games in his career: 112 runs, 41 doubles, 36 homers, 118 RBI, and 17 stolen bases with a .308 average.

In 2008, the Brewers wisely locked him up for eight years at an average of $5.6 million. We’ll see how long he’s content with being underpaid.

6) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds

The reigning NL MVP, Votto has improved each season, developed his pitch selection, and even has a little speed. Everything indicates that he will age well for a first baseman, and he already might be the best hitter in the game.

7) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies

Tulowitzki has been a bit injury prone, and his numbers are a bit inflated by Coors Field. But he has good power, has two straight outstanding seasons, and is a better fielder than Ramirez.

8) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox

Gonzalez plays every day, walks a bunch, and over the past four years has averaged 34 homers and 105 RBI despite playing in the hitter’s Purgatory that is San Diego. Now he’s in Fenway Park.

9) Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Indians

Shin-Soo Who? In his two seasons as a full-time player, Choo has hit exactly .300 each year, averaging 35 doubles, 21 homers, 88 RBI, 22 stolen bases, and 81 walks. He has ranked eighth and fourth in the AL in on-base percentage the past two years, and his strikeouts dropped from 151 to 118 last year.

He used to be a Mariner. They traded him for Ben Broussard and cash. Sigh.

10) Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers

Cabrera has weight issues and a drinking problem. If he can keep those under control, he will end up with impressive numbers.

The most similar hitters through their 27-year-old season: Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr., Hal Trosky, Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, Orlando Cepeda, and Al Kaline. That’s five Hall of Famers, two future Hall of Famers, and one Hal Trosky.

Here is the rest of the top 25 on this list:

11, Robinson Cano; 12, Dustin Pedroia; 13, Ryan Zimmerman; 14, Carl Crawford; 15, Brian McCann;

16, Jason Heyward (probably be in the top 5 next year); 17, Andrew McCutchen; 18, David Wright; 19, Matt Holliday; 20, Kevin Youkilis;

21, Chase Utley; 22, Prince Fielder; 23, Justin Upton; 24, Mark Teixeira; 25, Nick Markakis.

Question or comment for By the Numbers? You can reach Greg Jayne, Sports editor of The Columbian, at 360-735-4531, or by e-mail at greg.jayne@columbian.com. To read his blog, go to columbian.com/weblogs/gregjayne