In Our View: Afghanistan End Game

In announcing plans for a vast drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan by the end of this year, followed by complete removal before the end of 2016, President Barack Obama on Tuesday touched upon what might be the lingering lesson from America’s longest conflict: “It’s harder to end wars than to begin them.”

The United States invaded Afghanistan less than one month after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — a valid and necessary war against a country that had nurtured al-Qaida and served as the breeding ground for the terrorist attacks. But almost from the beginning, the end game has been subject to speculation, an ever-changing jumble of speculation that rarely provided much clarity.

About 32,000 U.S. troops are in Afghanistan these days, and Obama said that number will drop to 9,800 by the end of this year. Throughout 2015, that number will be cut in half, with the military force being consolidated in the capital of Kabul and at Bagram Air Field, the main U.S. base in the country. By the end of 2016, the remaining forces will be withdrawn, with fewer than 1,000 forces remaining to staff a security office in Kabul.

Yet even with Obama laying out a timetable, the eventual result is murky, pointing out the precarious nature of modern warfare. No longer is war fought against a well-defined foreign government. Now it is fought against various guerrilla forces and insurgents; now it is fought against improvised explosive devices; now it is an attempt to assess and contain an ever-changing amoeba of an opponent. And the conclusion is as messy as the action in the middle. “This is how wars end in the 21st century; not through signing ceremonies, but through decisive blows against our adversaries, transitions to elected governments, security forces who are trained to take the lead and, ultimately, full responsibility,” Obama said.

The ability of the Afghan people to seize that responsibility remains in question. Current president Hamid Karzai has thus far refused to sign a bilateral security agreement, but both candidates to replace him are believed to be in support of the deal. Then it will be up to the citizens to secure and manage a country traditionally beset by insecurity.

Obama on Tuesday credited the war in Afghanistan with striking significant blows against al-Qaida’s leadership, eliminating Osama bin Laden, and preventing Afghanistan from being used as a base for strikes against the United States. Those have been significant benefits, but it will be years or decades before it is clear whether the hits against al-Qaida or the stability of the Afghan government is enduring.

Meanwhile, Americans are dealing with the aftermath. As demonstrated by the tenuous end game to the war and the recent problems at Veterans Affairs hospitals, one of the most important aspects of war is preparing for the consequences, something that apparently was given scant consideration at the start of the Afghanistan invasion.

Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire reacted to Obama’s announcement by releasing a joint statement: “The president’s decision to set an arbitrary date for the full withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan is a monumental mistake and a triumph of politics over strategy.”

That might or might not be true, but the American public — and certainly the men and women of the military — are ready to for the war to end. Has it been enough? At this point we don’t know. All we know is that it’s more difficult to end wars than to begin them.