TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. — Water levels in the Great Lakes should remain mostly above average over the next six months as a powerful El Niño gives the region a break after two bitterly cold winters, but it’s unclear whether there will be longer-term effects, federal scientists said Thursday.
El Niño, the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that can significantly influence weather in North America, is expected to bring milder temperatures and less snow across the lakes that hold nearly one-fifth of the world’s surface fresh water, National Weather Service hydrologist Jim Noel said.
Those conditions are unlikely to alter the seasonal pattern of Great Lakes levels, which tend to rise in spring, peak in summer and decline in fall, said Keith Kompoltowicz, hydrology chief with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ district office in Detroit. But the fluctuations may be less pronounced than usual, partly because of El Niño’s effects on evaporation and precipitation.
“We don’t see any extreme events in terms of lake levels on the horizon,” Kompoltowicz said as scientists released an updated forecast for the Great Lakes, which have rebounded sharply after a prolonged slump that lasted from 1998 through 2012.
