Robinson: As election season progresses, let’s get ready to rumble

Ohio and North Carolina are seen as essentially tied. But a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll had Clinton leading Trump by 4 points in Georgia, a red state that Democrats haven’t won since 1992. And a recent CBS/YouGov poll showed Clinton within two points of Trump in Arizona, which has voted for a Democrat only once since 1948.

In other words, if the election were held today it would be what is technically called a butt-kicking. Closer examination of the polls suggests the coalition that twice elected Barack Obama as president — led by women and minorities — is reassembling for Clinton; and that college-educated whites, who narrowly favored Mitt Romney, are moving into Clinton’s column, as well.

It seems to me that there are two things Trump can do. One is to raise questions in voters’ minds about Clinton. Having already called her “Crooked Hillary” and questioned her mental competence, it’s hard to imagine how the attacks could get much nastier. But I’m afraid they will.

Trump can also try to bring non-college-educated whites — his strongest demographic — out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Theoretically this might allow him to pick off a Rust Belt state or two, although it’s a long shot. “I love the poorly educated,” he said in February. He needs even more of them to love him back.

Trump will double down

So I expect Trump to double down not just on his attacks against Clinton but on the two issues that won him his white working-class following: Immigration and trade. That means more bigotry, more xenophobia and more totally unrealistic promises about the miracles that he and his team of rich-guy economic advisers will magically perform.

It doesn’t help him that the Clinton campaign has bought time during the Olympics broadcasts for an ad in which Trump acknowledges that his Trump-branded shirts are made in Bangladesh and his neckties in China. Does it even occur to Trump that anyone might ever expect him to practice what he preaches? Sorry, that was a rhetorical question.

Meanwhile, the implications of the recent polls are not lost on the GOP leadership. If Clinton defeats Trump soundly, Republicans probably will lose their majority in the Senate. But if she wins in a landslide, the party could lose control of the House as well.

Some Republicans will be under increasing pressure, either from their constituents or their consciences, to distance themselves from Trump and rescind their endorsements. How will Trump react to such betrayal? Surely by lashing out, which is how he deals with any perceived slight.

This ought to be a debate about the nation’s future. Thanks to Trump, it promises instead to be an unedifying brawl with kicking, biting and gouging allowed.