As the final presidential debate loomed like a Halloween pi?ata full of October surprises, voters may have been less committed to one or the other candidate than the numbers suggest. And this, my fellow sufferers, could bode better for Donald Trump.
Lest you suddenly seek the highest perch from which to hurl yourself, this is strictly my personal unscientific prediction, based on instinct, experience and conversations with hundreds of voters across the country. This isn’t to say Trump will win, but it might give pause to those insisting the election is rigged.
By most accounts, the election is all but over. Poll after poll shows Hillary Clinton winning. The Upshot, a New York Times polling site, puts Clinton’s chance of winning at 92 percent, leaving Trump at just 8 percent. At this stage, according to the site, the chance of Clinton losing is “about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.”
The Upshot is worth checking out, if only to feel statistically significant.
Or, perhaps to feel there’s no reason to vote. If the statisticians, prognosticators and risk takers seem to have already figured it all out, why bother? Then again, models only work if people behave as they tend to and — crucially — if they tell the truth when polled, give or take a hedge here and there.
