Restaurant lunch business slides as menu prices rise

More people are choosing to brown-bag their midday meal instead of eating lunch in a restaurant as menu prices rise, research firm NPD Group said Tuesday.

Lunch, which accounts for a third of restaurant traffic, has seen steep declines over the past six months, NPD said. In the three months that ended in June, lunch visits fell by 4 percent compared with the same period a year ago, the sharpest decline of any time of day.

The decline in lunch traffic has been seen for a decade as more office workers sign-in from home. (Pajama-clad telecommuters are less likely to schedule business lunches.) Even the distraction of online shopping was credited for the decline, because it leads to fewer breaks for food. Weekday lunch traffic fell 7 percent.

But recent menu price increases have made the declines worse, NPD said. Average lunch checks for the spring quarter increased as much as 5 percent compared with the same period year ago, NPD said.

That has moved meals beyond what some consumers are willing to pay, leading to lower customer satisfaction and fewer repeat visits.

Restaurants were affected across the board, with the exception of fast-food chains. So-called fast-casual restaurants, including “higher end” quick chains like Chipotle and Panera, saw the biggest declines, at 9 percent. Casual dining restaurants, which include sit-down chains like Applebee’s or Red Robin, saw a 6 percent decline.

Fast-food chains have weathered the decline better than other restaurants, NPD said, because of aggressive deals like combo and value menu offerings.