WASHINGTON — Can threatening war crimes charges persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to leave power? What about guaranteeing his safety in exile? These long-shot proposals are at the center of the Trump administration’s new effort to resolve Syria’s six-year civil war.
Though still evolving, President Donald Trump’s plans for Syria have come into clearer view since he ordered cruise missiles fired on a Syrian air base to punish Assad for a chemical weapons attack. The strategy breaks down into three basic phases: defeating the Islamic State group, restoring stability in Syria region-by-region and securing a political transition in which Assad ultimately steps down.
The approach is little different than one that failed under the Obama administration, and arguably faces greater challenges.
• PHASE ONE: DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE GROUP.
Trump’s airstrikes marked the first U.S. attack against Assad’s forces, but there’s no appetite for using America’s military to depose Assad. Trump’s national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, said Sunday the U.S. wasn’t planning to send in more ground troops.
“Our priority remains the defeat of ISIS,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said last week, using another acronym for the militant group.
• PHASE TWO: STABILIZATION.
After IS is defeated or its threat neutralized, the administration will try to broker regional cease-fires between Assad’s government and rebels. Such truces have rarely held.
The Trump administration has spoken about “interim zones of stability.” These would be different than the “safe zones” the Obama administration considered but never opted for because they would have required a U.S. military presence to enforce, potentially putting American aircraft in conflict with Syria’s air force.
Under Trump’s plan, the Assad government would be party to the stability zones and U.S. or Arab aircraft could ostensibly patrol them without clashing with Syrian warplanes.
• PHASE THREE: TRANSITION.
Though Trump officials have made conflicting public statements about Assad’s future, the emerging plan envisions a peaceful transfer of power. Assad’s departure could occur in various ways.
One possibility foresees elections held under a new constitution, with Assad barred from running.
A grimmer possibility involves Assad going the way of former dictators Moammar Gadhafi in Libya or Saddam Hussein in Iraq, who were killed after being deposed.
A third option aims to use the threat of war crimes charges as leverage. While the administration believes Syria’s government is culpable, the key is connecting the war crimes to Assad himself.
Successfully prosecuting Assad would be difficult for legal and geopolitical reasons.
• POST-TRANSITION.
Despite differences, Trump officials insist Russia’s involvement is critical to resolving the war, given the influence it gained in Syria after helping Assad retake Syria’s largest cities.
It seeks Russian support by guaranteeing Russian access to the Tartus naval base and Latakia air base in any post-Assad scenario.
