The following is presented as part of The Columbian’s Opinion content, which offers a point of view in order to provoke thought and debate of civic issues. Opinions represent the viewpoint of the author. Unsigned editorials represent the consensus opinion of The Columbian’s editorial board, which operates independently of the news department.
President Trump is understandably frustrated by the crisis at the border. Anyone who watched the video of more than 1,000 illegal migrants sneaking through a hole in a fence near El Paso, Texas — the largest single breach of our border ever recorded — and still says we don’t need a border wall is in denial.
There were more than 109,000 apprehensions at or near the southern border in April — the highest level since 2007. But unlike past border surges, when most of the illegal migrants were single men, the vast majority today are either families with children (58,474 in April) or unaccompanied minors (8,897). Our Border Patrol is not equipped to handle it.
Tariffs are the wrong tool to address this crisis. But Congress has denied Trump the right tools. On May 1, the president asked Congress for $4.5 billion in emergency border security funding — a request that included $3.3 billion for humanitarian assistance at the border but no money for a border wall. It’s been more than a month now, and what has Congress done? Absolutely nothing.
Perhaps his threats will work. A high-level delegation of Mexican officials is in Washington to defuse the crisis. The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and showed almost no growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. Mexico cannot afford a trade war with the United States. But if a deal is not reached and Trump goes ahead with tariffs on Mexico, it could also have disastrous, unintended consequences for this country.
First, this showdown with Mexico comes just as we engaged China in a trade war. Unlike his threats against Mexico, which are opposed by many in his own party, Trump’s decision to confront Beijing on its theft of intellectual property, forced technology transfers and barriers for U.S. businesses to compete in sectors of China’s economy has strong bipartisan support. But a trade war with Mexico would undermine the trade war with China.
A trade war on two fronts
Imposing tariffs on Mexico would help China maximize pain for U.S. businesses and consumers. Why? China and Mexico provide us with many of the same kinds of products. Right now, many American families and businesses that buy those products can avoid the 25 percent tax on Chinese products by buying the same kinds of items from Mexico. If Trump opens a second front in his trade war, they will now get hit by the same tax on Mexican products.
Are there other tools Trump might use besides tariffs? Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, suggested “imposing a fee on the billions of dollars of remittances that annually leave the United States to Mexico, which only encourage illegal immigration and don’t help the U.S. economy.”
Let’s hope it does not come to that and that Trump cuts a deal and the whole crisis blows over. Because a two-front trade war would be devastating to the U.S. economy. China is our real adversary. Mexico is not.
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