2020 Dem primary calendar may boost Hispanic voter clout

DES MOINES, Iowa — How to pronounce Beto O’Rourke’s first name — “Is it BET-oh or BAY-toe?” — is debated nearly everywhere the 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful goes in Iowa. But Rich Salas doesn’t hesitate.

“BET-oh,” the chief diversity officer at Des Moines University says correctly while introducing O’Rourke at a recent gathering of an Asian and Latino political action committee. “What a really great name.”

Salas notes that O’Rourke “speaks really good Spanish, better than I do,” before leading chants of “Viva Beto!”

It’s a rallying cry that may not resonate in Iowa, home to the nation’s first presidential nominating contest, but could pay dividends faster than in previous years thanks to a primary calendar that will see the two states with the largest Hispanic populations go to the polls earlier than usual.

Hispanics make up 6 percent of the population in Iowa, which holds caucuses Feb. 3, and barely half that percentage in New Hampshire, which goes next. But then comes Nevada, where almost 30 percent of people are Hispanic. And, 10 days later this cycle, California and Texas — home to more than 13 million eligible Hispanic voters, nearly half of all such voters nationwide, according to the Pew Research Center — vote on “Super Tuesday.”

That means candidates who can win consistent Hispanic support could potentially secure a viable — if narrow — path of survival through the primary’s frantic opening weeks, as the 23-candidate field winnows. A total of 4,051 Democratic delegates are up for grabs. Nearly 500 of those will be in California and more than 260 in Texas. Both allocate delegates proportionately, though, meaning even the winners likely have to share their hauls — and potentially providing more lifelines for any candidate who can mobilize Hispanics even if they don’t finish first.

“I think it’s smart for the candidates to be thinking about how they can become a household name in the Latino community,” said Matt Barreto, co-founder of the Hispanic polling firm Latino Decisions. “It will keep them alive, and it will make them a national contender, even if they don’t do well in Iowa or New Hampshire.”

It’s a risky strategy since that means betting on an electorate that’s disproportionately young and plagued by low voter turnout — and may still mostly be going to the polls late enough that campaigns working hard to woo it may not last that long. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who was the lone Hispanic in the 2008 presidential race, made a strong showing in Nevada essential to his bid, only to drop out before he got there — following fourth-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

U.S. Census survey data shows that general election Hispanic turnout in 2018 climbed more than 13 percentage points from the last midterms in 2014, to 40.4 percent, but still trailed whites, who reported voting at 55 percent rates, and blacks, who reported voting at 51.1 percent. Still, Barreto noted that the overall number of Hispanics who reported voting has risen in recent cycles and that the turnout percentage has been hurt because so many Hispanics are turning 18 and young people of all backgrounds are less likely to vote.

Hispanics, meanwhile, will outpace African Americans to become the electorate’s largest nationwide racial minority group for the first time on Election Day 2020 — accounting for more than 13 percent of eligible voters, according to Pew projections. Not all Hispanics are Democrats, but about two-thirds reported voting for the party during last fall’s midterms, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of the 2018 national electorate.

“Over the years, there haven’t been that many Latino presidential candidates,” Julian Castro, former San Antonio mayor and Obama administration housing chief and 2020’s only Hispanic presidential candidate, said in a phone interview. “So, there’s still this sense of barriers being broken.”

Castro has been to Nevada more than any Democratic presidential rival and has announced sweeping plans on issues he says Hispanics most care about, including calls for decriminalizing crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally and universal prekindergarten. O’Rourke, a former congressman, is of Irish decent but speaks fluent Spanish and hails from El Paso, Texas, where more than a quarter of the population are immigrants, most from just across the border in Mexico.

Sen. Kamala Harris has a home-state advantage in California and, during a recent town hall in neighboring Nevada, handed out headsets to attendees who wanted to listen to a Spanish translation — along with signs reading “Kamala Harris for the People” in English and Spanish.