ORLANDO, Fla. — The next tropical depression that could become Tropical Storm Karen may form from one of two weather systems the National Hurricane Center is keeping track of.
The most likely system is a tropical wave headed off the coast of Africa within the next five days, but a closer system will approach the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
A tropical wave is an elongated area of low pressure that when over the tropical waters of the Atlantic or Caribbean can form into circulating storms that can become tropical depressions, tropical storms and then hurricanes. The next named storm would be Karen.
The wave that’s currently over land on the West coast of Africa is forecast to move into the Atlantic by today.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
As of 11 a.m. Pacific Saturday, the NHC puts the chances the wave will become a tropical depression at 50 percent within 48 hours and 90 percent within five days.
The next most likely storm the NHC is tracking is a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
“The wave is forecast to cross the Windward Islands on Sunday,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week.”
As time passes, the NHC said upper-level winds could stymie chances of development as the wave is projected to move north toward Puerto Rico and out of the Caribbean Sea. It puts chances of tropical depression formation at 50 percent within 48 hours and 60 percent within five days.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance,” forecasters said.
