While we appreciate President Donald Trump’s optimism about how the United States is dealing with the coronavirus outbreak, some caution is warranted. Epidemiologists warn that the pandemic is far from finished and that the number of victims will continue to grow.
For citizens hoping to resume their typical daily lives, some reminders are necessary: The number of cases is vastly underreported; some people carrying the virus might not yet be feeling symptoms; and some who contract it might show no symptoms or only mild symptoms. Contact with these people can endanger you and everybody you subsequently contact. COVID-19 is more contagious and more deadly than the flu, to which it is often compared.
Most troubling, in some ways, is the inability to ascertain exactly how widespread the virus is throughout the country. Many victims might have moderate symptoms and fail to alter their behavior or to seek medical attention. And many others might be unable to be tested for COVID-19; South Korea has tested as many people as the United States, despite having one-sixth the population.
As Kacey Ernst, a professor of epidemiology at the College of Public Health at the University of Arizona, explained to The New York Times: “We refer to the disease surveillance iceberg — underneath the water’s surface are all the cases that are mild, asymptomatic, untested and unreported. As that iceberg gets bigger, we will see more and more of the tip coming from the surface. This will mean that hospitals will be stretched beyond capacity.”
That is coming to pass, with reports of hospitals being unable to deal with the influx of patients. In the Seattle suburb of Shoreline, a makeshift hospital has been constructed on a soccer field; military field hospitals have been built in New York and elsewhere, and hospital ships have been deployed.
Dr. Alan Melnick, Clark County’s public health officer, has reiterated that the key to slowing the virus is to remain 6 feet away from others. Department spokeswoman Marissa Armstrong explains: “COVID-19 is spread via respiratory droplets. If someone coughs or sneezes, those droplets are then deposited all over your house. If you touch those surfaces, then your face, you’re exposing yourself to the virus.”
Meanwhile, it can take up to 14 days for somebody who is infected to show symptoms. They might be spreading the disease without being aware of it.
All of this should be known to anybody who has been following news reports of the pandemic and heeding the recommendations of health care professionals. But it bears repeating as we continue to adjust to disrupted lives and evaluate the strong measures taken by Gov. Jay Inslee to slow the spread of the disease. Ideally, when the pandemic ends, those measures will seem like an overreaction; that means they were effective.
We hope President Trump keeps that in mind as he talks about the country being “opened up and just raring to go by Easter.” That is an inspiring message, but also a fanciful one. As noted immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci said: “You don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline.”
In contrast, Inslee’s recommendations have consistently followed the advice of experts — people who have spent their careers studying pandemics and public health. His escalating decisions to ban gatherings of more than 250 people, then close bars and restaurants, then issue a “stay in place” order seem prudent. Frustrating, yes, but prudent nonetheless.
Ideally, those measures will someday appear to have been an overreaction.
