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Oregon Insight: Layoffs are few but jobless claims remain stubbornly high

By Mike Rogoway, oregonlive.com
Published: October 12, 2020, 7:30am

PORTLAND— Fewer than 4,000 Oregonians filed new jobless claims at the beginning of October, the lowest volume of weekly layoffs since before the pandemic.

Oregon’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is vastly exceeding expectations, buoyed by federal stimulus payments and a strong recovery in some of the state’s major industries – including health care, electronics manufacturing and athletic apparel.

The state’s unemployment rate in August, 7.7%, was below the national rate and Oregon appears to be faring unusually well as it recovers from the pandemic. (The state will report the September unemployment data on Tuesday.)

The U.S. Labor Department reported 840,000 new jobless claims across the country last week – about four times as many as in the weeks before pandemic.

Compare that to Oregon, where the number of new claims last week was actually below the weekly average in February before the coronavirus hit the state. That was a time of unprecedented strength in the state’s labor market.

If Oregon measures up relatively well compared to other states, though, in historic terms it remains in a trough. The 145,000 who filed continued jobless claims at the end of September – those who remained out of work for at least a second consecutive week – is still 8% higher than any single week during the Great Recession.

And there are worrisome signs that some sectors, including higher wage jobs, aren’t bouncing back. That could indicate long-term economic damage.

It’s not clear why the state’s labor market is faring better than the country as a whole. Oregon never experienced a runaway coronavirus outbreak like other parts of the country did, but infection rates are relatively high.

Individual workers’ own situations depend a great deal on their industries, and where they live. Oregon’s pandemic recession has fallen most heavily on lower-wage workers and those on the coast and in the Portland area.

That’s because the hospitality industry – restaurants, bars and hotels – is the sector most severely damaged by efforts to contain the pandemic.

For many laid-off workers, the consequences of the coronavirus recession were exacerbated by Oregon’s failure to promptly pay jobless claims.

The state has paid more than $5 billion in unemployment benefits since the middle of March, but hundreds of thousands had to wait weeks or months for their checks while the state coped with an unprecedented volume of claims and worked to process them with an obsolete computer system.

Even now, tens of thousands are still waiting – including 49,000 workers stuck in a legally mandated, bureaucratic process called “adjudication.” The Oregon Employment Department says it could take months to clear that backlog.

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