It’s time to predict the Golden Globes winners, which you realize, if you paid the slightest attention to the strange slate of things nominated last week, is a fool’s errand. But that’s the task at hand. So here’s what a fool believes will happen at the ceremony today.
MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
“Promising Young Woman”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
And the winner is: The HFPA could go way out there and pick the dark revenge-thriller “Promising Young Woman” or hew closer to the mainstream with “Chicago 7.” Or go with the poignant “Nomadland,” which is the direction I think it’ll go.
Unless: It did already kind of go out there and give “Promising Young Woman” writer-director Emerald Fennell two nominations. Maybe neon pink is its color?
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”
And the winner is: The late Boseman for that electrifying final turn.
Unless: Hard to imagine this going any other way, unless that somewhat surprising best picture nomination for “The Father” spells deep pockets of support for Hopkins.
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
And the winner is: I’ve already noted all the “Promising Young Woman” love, which will probably translate into an award for the film’s ferocious star-turn.
Unless: I think Mulligan, like Boseman, has this locked down.
MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
And the winner is: The HFPA doesn’t do comedy here, meaning “Hamilton” prevails.
Unless: Enough voters understand that a filmed version of a stage performance is not a movie and they give it to an actual moviefilm.
ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
James Corden, “The Prom”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield”
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”
And the winner is: Probably Cohen, who was also nominated for his supporting turn in “Chicago 7.” But, again, broad comedy — even one as pointed as this — isn’t the group’s vibe.
Unless: “How does a bastard, orphan, son of a whore and a Scotsman …”
ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Kate Hudson, “Music”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Rosamund Pike, “I Care a Lot”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma”
And the winner is: In this case, Bakalova’s breakout “Borat” turn will be difficult to deny, no matter the movie’s tone. HFPA bonus: She’s Bulgarian!
Unless: It’s strange that the HFPA refused to classify “Promising Young Woman” as a comedy but had no reservations putting Pike’s sour thriller in the category. That might mean something. Or nothing. It’s hard to figure with this group.
TELEVISION SERIES DRAMA
And the winner is: “The Crown.” Historical drama? Check. Historical drama about royalty? Check and check. Historical drama about royalty featuring adorable corgis? That’s a bingo!
Unless: Baby Yoda does the magic hand thing and pulls a mind trick on voters.
ACTOR, TELEVISION SERIES DRAMA
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Josh O’Connor, “The Crown”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Al Pacino, “Hunters”
Matthew Rhys, “Perry Mason”
And the winner is: Rhys? This bunch never honored his epic work on “The Americans,” so maybe they’ll plead ignorance and reward him here.
Unless: It’s a complete coronation for “The Crown,” though voters might have a hard time separating O’Connor from the insufferable Charles. Then it’s Bateman.
ACTRESS, TELEVISION SERIES DRAMA
Olivia Colman, “The Crown”
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Emma Corrin, “The Crown”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Sarah Paulson, “Ratched”
And the winner is: “Goodbye England’s Rose / May you ever grow in our hearts / You were the grace that placed itself / Where lives were torn apart / You called out to our country / And you whispered to those in pain
Now you belong to heaven / And the stars spell out your name …”
Unless: It’s once again Her Majesty the Queen.
TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
“The Queen’s Gambit”
And the winner is: Steve McQueen’s “Small Axe” series of films formed an unforgettable tapestry of culture and history, but the HFPA will probably go with the popular “Queen’s Gambit.”
Unless: Voters decide to reckon with their blind spot when it comes to recognizing Black artists and reward McQueen.
ACTOR, TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Bryan Cranston, “Your Honor”
Jeff Daniels, “The Comey Rule”
Hugh Grant, “The Undoing”
Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much Is True”
Ethan Hawke, “The Good Lord Bird”
And the winner is: The charming Grant playing a monster will be hard to resist.
Unless: The charming Hawke playing a much more complex monster in a superior series prevails.
ACTRESS, TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Cate Blanchett , “Mrs. America”
Daisy Edgar-Jones, “Normal People”
Shira Haas, “Unorthodox”
Nicole Kidman, “The Undoing”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Queen’s Gambit”
And the winner is: There’s no scenario that Taylor-Joy doesn’t win this for her tour-de-force turn in the phenomenal “Queen’s Gambit.”
Unless: Again … there’s … just … no … scenario …
TELEVISION SERIES COMEDY
“Emily in Paris”
“The Flight Attendant”
And the winner is: HFPA members had never given “Schitt’s Creek” a nomination, much less a trophy, before this year. So either they’re going to make up for lost time …
Unless: … or throw up their hands, clean the slate and go with “Ted Lasso.”
ACTOR, TELEVISION SERIES COMEDY
Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”
Nicholas Hoult, “The Great”
Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Ramy Youssef, “Ramy”
And the winner is: This probably isn’t going to be like the Emmys, with “Schitt’s Creek” winning everything. Look for Sudeikis from the heartwarming “Ted Lasso” to snag this one.
Unless: It is the Emmys all over again! And look at Dan Levy, beaming with pride!
ACTRESS, TELEVISION SERIES COMEDY
Lily Collins, “Emily in Paris”
Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Jane Levy, “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”
Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
And the winner is: You’d think O’Hara, but this is the HFPA, and it zigs when the Emmys zag. So how about Cuoco for her freewheeling, career-best work on “Flight Attendant”?
Unless: The HFPA wants to hear O’Hara deliver a speech. And, c’mon, who doesn’t? (Besides, perhaps, Cuoco.)