Weather forecasts in recent days have raised the tantalizing possibility that Clark County might see some snow in the first half of the week, a welcome break from what has so far been an unseasonably warm winter.
It isn’t a sure thing, however; the latest Portland Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service mentioned the possibility of snow down to about 1,000 to 1,500 feet on Sunday morning “with perhaps a little lower than that for Cowlitz, Columbia and northern Clark Counties.”
So does that mean there’s any snow on the way for Vancouver? According to meteorologist Clinton Rockey with the Portland office of the National Weather Service, the answer could be yes — but don’t get too excited.
“If you’re a snow lover, you’ll see it, but it’s probably not going to be enough to play in,” he said.
The first chance for snow will come Sunday morning when a frontal system moves into the region, although it won’t be accompanied by strong winds out of the Columbia River Gorge. That’s not the usual snowy weather pattern for Clark County, Rockey said, so it’s not likely to produce significant accumulation.
Residents are more likely to see snow in the Ridgefield area and to the east, he said, and probably less than half an inch in total. Vancouver might see a few flakes, he said, but anything that does fall will likely be gone by midmorning.
A “showery pattern” should persist through the day and into Monday night, he said, which would keep the snow level at about 500 to 1,000 feet. If any of it manages to get lower, it would likely be in small pockets.
“With showers, if you can kind of visualize spilling popcorn on the floor – you don’t know where the pieces are going to land or end up,” he said. “Hit-or-miss, here-and-there type accumulation.”
Monday night is expected to be dryer, but there might be another shot at snow on Tuesday when another front moves into the region, Rockey said — although it’s tough to say how much cold air there will be at that point.
The mild weather so far this season just comes down to luck of the draw, he added. The winter started off mild and has remained that way in January thanks to a pattern with a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains that’s been pushing more cold air toward the eastern half of the United States.
Like a rock in a stream, that high pressure system will eventually erode and move off, he said, which could prompt a return to cooler weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest in February and March, he said — but it’s still too soon to say whether things will get cool enough and wet enough to make up for the lack of snow in the first half of the season.
