Saturday, October 1, 2022
Oct. 1, 2022

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Tropical wave given ‘near 0%’ chance of developing into depression, hurricane forecasters say


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. —There’s almost no chance for the tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean to develop into a depression, according to forecasters.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday the disturbance in the Atlantic has a near 0% chance of developing in the next five days and a near 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The tropical wave had a 40% chance of developing as recently as Monday, but unfavorable conditions are expected to prevent the system from further growth.

“It’s just poorly organized,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

However, there’s still a good chance Atlantic storm activity ramps up soon as we enter what is traditionally the busiest part of hurricane season.

“The last couple of seasons have been so busy it makes it seem like this one is slow,” Pydynowski said. “The heart of the season is really usually that Aug. 15, Aug. 20 date to maybe the end of, or at least late October. So you really have the two months in there where you pick up the majority of your storms.

“Even though we’ve only had three [named storms in 2022], we are sort of on pace. How this season turns out is going to be determined by how any storms we get during the heart of the season.”

Even if the tropical wave in the Atlantic took advantage of a small window for developing, it likely wouldn’t have gone beyond a depression because of dry air and wind shear, forecasters said.

The next named storm to form will be Danielle.

It appears the Atlantic could be quiet for a week or so after this tropical wave, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowsk i.

“Outside of this particular tropical wave, not much else stands out as far as candidates for development through Aug. 20,” he said.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24, 2021, and maintained that status until Oct 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated predictions for activity this hurricane season.

Experts are now predicting 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five of them a Category 3 or higher.

“At this point it looks like those numbers make sense,” Pydynowski said. “We’ve got plenty of warm water out there. We’ve been fighting a lot of dry air and dust and these waves coming off of Africa haven’t had a chance to really develop yet.

“But again, you can’t write off this season just yet. We’re just now starting to get into the heart of things.”

The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10.

There have been three named storms in the Atlantic so far this year: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm, dumped as much as 12 inches of rain on parts of South Florida.

However, the season’s calling card to this point has been Tropical Storm Bonnie, which crossed from the Atlantic Ocean into the Pacific Ocean and then became Hurricane Bonnie. It was the first storm to hold together during an ocean crossing since Hurricane Otto in 2016.

“In terms of just anomalies or things you don’t see every hurricane season, that was probably the one that stood out,” Pydynowski said. “It’s pretty unusual to see a storm totally hold together across Central America and maintain the Atlantic name as it goes across the Pacific.”

The six-month hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

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