Estrich: Self-fulfilling prophecy: Crime fear

Defunding the police might as well be the theme of a ’60s movie. It is not happening, nor should it. Crime is up, but the fear of crime is up even more. One feeds the other.

There’s a famous study that was done of places residents in a particular neighborhood found dangerous. To no one’s surprise, a corner where young people hung out was considered among the most dangerous spots. In fact, it hadn’t been. But as concerns grew, people stayed away — and the more people stayed away, the more crime increased.

Fear of crime can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy when it causes law-abiding people to adjust their conduct. If people are afraid to ride the buses, the buses become more dangerous. If they believe buses are safe, they will be.

Police presence matters not only because of what a police officer walking a beat can do but because of the way the rest of us behave when we think the police are there. Graffiti and disorder, what we consider quality-of-life offenses, affect crime because they affect the optics of who controls the street.

Cover it with graffiti and I’ll be looking for the gangbangers. Add a crossing guard and I’ll watch out for children and dogs. Add a security guard and he might tell the homeless woman to move on, something the police these days can’t even do. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a guard outside the taco stand. The private security business is thriving.

It wasn’t so long ago that the streets were filled with protesters challenging the overuse of force. Those issues remain as important as they ever were. But the crime issue cannot be a choice between toughness and racism or toughness will win.

If reformers do not embrace the growing fear of crime and address it with answers that include punishing that homeless woman for risking a man’s eyesight for no reason at all, then the demagogues will.