JACKSON, Tenn. — When he looked to the future, Grayson Hart always saw a college degree. He was a good student at a good high school. He wanted to be an actor, or maybe a teacher. Growing up, he believed college was the only route to stability and a happy life.
The pandemic changed his mind.
A year after high school, Hart is directing a youth theater program in Jackson, Tenn. He got into every college he applied to but turned them all down. Cost was a big factor, but a year of remote learning gave him the time and confidence to forge his own path.
“There were a lot of us with the pandemic, we kind of had a do-it-yourself kind of attitude of like, ‘Oh — I can figure this out,’” he said. “Why do I want to put in all the money to get a piece of paper that really isn’t going to help with what I’m doing right now?”
As a kid, Hart dreamed of going to Penn State to study musical theater. But when classes went online, he spent less time on coursework and more on creative outlets. He started working at a smoothie shop, and by the time he graduated, he had left college plans behind.
Hart is among hundreds of thousands of young people who came of age during the pandemic but didn’t go to college. Many have turned to hourly jobs or careers that don’t require a degree; some have been deterred by the prospect of student debt.
What first looked like a pandemic blip has turned into a crisis. Nationwide, undergraduate college enrollment dropped 8 percent from 2019 to 2022, with declines even after returning to in-person classes, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse.
Economists say the impact could be dire. At worst, it could signal a new generation with little faith in the value of a college degree. It appears that those who passed on college during the pandemic are opting out for good.
Fewer college graduates could worsen existing labor shortages. And for those who forgo college, it usually means significantly lower lifetime earnings, according to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce.
In dozens of interviews with The Associated Press, educators, researchers and students described a generation jaded by education institutions. Largely on their own amid remote learning, many took part-time jobs. Some felt they weren’t learning anything, and the idea of further education held little appeal.
The shift has been stark in Jackson, where just 4 in 10 of the county’s public high school graduates immediately went to college in 2021, down from 6 in 10 in 2019.
Jackson’s leaders say young people are taking restaurant and retail jobs that pay more than ever. Some are being recruited by manufacturing companies that have raised wages to fill shortages.
America’s college-going rate was generally on the upswing until the pandemic reversed decades of progress. Rates fell despite economic upheaval, which typically drives more people into higher education.
In Tennessee, education officials issued a “call to action” after finding that 53 percent of public high school graduates in 2021 were enrolling in college, far below the national average. Other states are still collecting data on recent college rates, but early figures are troubling.
Most alarming are the figures for Black, Hispanic and low-income students, who saw the largest slides in many states. In Tennessee’s class of 2021, just 35 percent of Hispanic graduates and 44 percent of Black graduates enrolled in college, compared with 58 percent of their white peers.
