New projected cash flows for the U.S. Treasury Department from a Washington think tank show June 1 and 2 could present the biggest risk dates for a potential government default if Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling before then.
The Bipartisan Policy Center on Thursday estimated that payments due on June 1 — driven by bills for Medicare, retirement and veterans benefits — will outpace expected revenue that day by about $75 billion, with another $22 billion in net outflows hitting on June 2.
The combined $97 billion in anticipated net outflows would eat up well more than half of the Treasury’s remaining resources. As of last week, the department reported $88 billion in unexhausted accounting maneuvers — known as extraordinary measures — as well as $94.6 billion in cash, as of May 16.
If the Treasury can cover its remaining May expenses and get past the early June hurdles, it may be in the clear for several more weeks. According to the BPC, it’s expected to be revenue positive by about $85 billion for the period running from June 5 to June 27, helped along by about $79 billion in quarterly tax receipts on June 15.