The competition for Grammy nominations is a little stiffer this go-around: After two years in which the Recording Academy selected 10 nominees for each of the top four prizes, the group is lowering the number to eight for the 66th Grammy Awards, nods for which are due to be announced on Friday. (The annual ceremony itself will be held Feb. 4 at Crypto.com Arena.) To be eligible for consideration, a recording must have been released between Oct. 1, 2022 and Sept. 15, 2023.
Here are our predictions for nominations in some of the more closely watched categories, with potential honorees listed in alphabetical order.
Album of the Year
Boygenius, “The Record”
Zach Bryan, “Zach Bryan”
Drake & 21 Savage, “Her Loss”
Foo Fighters, “But Here We Are”
Olivia Rodrigo, “Guts”
Taylor Swift, “Midnights”
SZA, “SOS”
Morgan Wallen, “One Thing at a Time”
Possible surprise: Jon Batiste, “World Music Radio”
Possible snub: “One Thing at a Time”
Each a commercial blockbuster and a critic’s fave, SZA’s “SOS” and Swift’s “Midnights” are all but certain to vie for the Grammys’ equivalent of best picture. But Wallen’s “One Thing at a Time” dwarfs those two in terms of overall consumption; what’s unclear is whether academy members (who blanked the country superstar in 2021 and 2022) are ready to embrace him nearly three years after he was caught on video drunkenly using a racial slur. Watch out for a return appearance by Batiste, the Louisiana-born jazz musician who won the category last year in an upset over A-list stars including Swift and Rodrigo.
Record of the Year
Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything”
Luke Combs, “Fast Car”
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red”
Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?”
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire”
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero”
SZA, “Kill Bill”
Possible surprise: Morgan Wallen, “Last Night”
Possible snub: “Paint the Town Red”
At only 21, Eilish has already taken home this award twice, so figure that her delicate “Barbie” ballad is a lock for a nomination along with the Hot 100-topping singles from Swift’s and SZA’s LPs. Rodrigo’s rock-operatic “Vampire” is a feat of imaginative record-making; Cyrus’ “I Will Survive”-ish “Flowers” hits this category’s throwback sweet spot. And then there’s Combs’ extremely faithful rendition of Tracy Chapman’s “Fast Car,” which is likely to remind voters of their good taste back in 1989, when they nominated Chapman’s original for the same Grammy.
