The meaninglessness of current polls can be guessed by the wrongness of their analyzers last time around.
On Feb. 19, 2020, a writer for New York Magazine, noting that Bernie Sanders had won both Iowa and New Hampshire, was even more impressed by “Joe Biden’s catastrophic showings.” Biden, he declared, was “weakened (perhaps fatally).”
An ABC News/Washington Post poll had Sanders “16 points ahead of his closest competitor.” And Sanders’ “closest competitor” wasn’t even the guy who eventually won the nomination and is now president. It was Michael Bloomberg.
An Axios headline at the time: “Poll: Joe Biden loses status as most electable Democrat.” And on Feb. 25, Reuters reported that “Sanders surpasses Biden among African American voters,” according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Again, we’re still 14 months away from the election. The above declarations were made nine months before. And that was a mere week before the Super Tuesday primaries, when Biden blew away the opposition. He won 10 out of 14 primaries — including Massachusetts, Minnesota and Texas, states that the punditry assured us were in the bag for Bernie.
The very African American voters who, a few days before, were allegedly preferring Sanders gave Biden a huge victory. Had it occurred to the oracles that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire tend to be more left-leaning than those in the South or even Massachusetts? Perhaps not.
A CNN analysis described Biden’s win as an “unbelievable political comeback.” It was unbelievable only if you worshipped early polls and believed in the punditry’s psychic powers to divine their meaning.
Oh, we can take seriously the jabber about political “wild cards,” approval ratings and where the “proverbial” headwinds are blowing. On the other hand, we don’t have to.
