With Oregon’s minimum wage poised to rise as high as $14.75 over the next six years, Clark County employers might be worried about a mass exodus of low-wage workers.
But have no fear, said regional economist Scott Bailey.
“I don’t see there being much of an impact right away,” said Bailey, who works for the Washington Employment Security Department
Since the wage increase awaiting Oregon Gov. Kate Brown’s signature is incremental, those looking across the river for a raise may have to wait a few years.
“Add up the income tax and commute and you would end up losing money” right away, Bailey said.
There could also be the chance local wages will become competitive and keep up with Oregon’s proposed wage increases.
“Anytime you have a shared labor market that reaches over a state border you have these spillover effects,” said David Cooper, an economic analyst with the Washington, D.C., think tank Economic Policy Institute.
“Employers in Washington are probably going to have to lift their wages a bit. It’s good for workers on both sides of the border.”
Currently, Washington’s minimum wage is $9.47 per hour, compared with $9.25 in Oregon until July, when the minimum wage bill passed Thursday would start its climb.
Oregon’s higher wage — which will be highest within the Portland metro area’s urban growth boundary — would be phased in through 2022.
Between now and then, Bailey said, plenty could happen with wages in Washington through the Legislature or other means.
“I don’t know if they’re going to do anything about it,” he said, “but I don’t think the issue is going away anytime soon.”
