The art of predicting Academy Award winners, which will be handed out starting at 5 p.m. Sunday, is a perilous one. Just ask me, a person who spends much of her working life watching movies and writing about movies and thinking about movies, and who last year scored an embarrassing 10 out of 24 on her Oscar ballot. (In my defense I once scored 21 out of 24, a feat I would like noted in my obituary someday. But, to be honest, that was that easy year when the final “Lord of the Rings” movie won everything.)
This year, as often happens, the front-runner keeps switching. “Joker” had the most nominations of any film — 11 — but it seems an unlikely choice for best picture. (Then again, so did “Green Book,” and it won last year.) A Martin Scorsese film is always a safe bet, but does the very lengthy “The Irishman” have any momentum? Are there enough Tarantino fans in the Academy to give the top award to “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”? Is “Parasite” quietly sneaking up into front-runner status? Things seem to be changing daily.
Below, my best guesses — and they are indeed guesses, to be taken with a grain of salted popcorn — on who we might see at the podium Sunday evening in the major categories. As always, I’ve added what my vote would be, if I had one, and what name I wish could be added to the ballot. And a warning: if you’re using my picks in your Oscar pool, may the Force be with you.
Best picture
The only thing I can say with absolute certainty here is that it won’t be “Ford v. Ferrari.” (Which is a fun movie, but I don’t know why it’s here. Or maybe I do, but that’s another story.) The front-runner at the moment is “1917,” Sam Mendes’ masterful World War I drama, which won both the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild top awards — but then again, “Parasite” took the ensemble award from the Screen Actors Guild, often an indicator of major Oscar-night success. (Though not always; “Green Book” wasn’t even nominated in that category last year. You see how messy this gets.) Might “Jojo Rabbit” sneak in? Will “Little Women” fans, angered about Greta Gerwig’s exclusion from the director category, stage a coup? Might there be a tie? Stay tuned!