5. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev.
Rosen is in a perennial battleground state that Biden carried narrowly in 2020, but she may be less vulnerable than that because of Nevada Republicans’ struggles to win federal races. Last year, former state attorney general Adam Paul Laxalt was a top GOP recruit and lost to incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by about 8,000 votes, even as Republicans won the governor’s office. The only major declared challenger to Rosen so far is Jim Marchant, who previously lost races for Congress and secretary of state and has expressed the view that Biden was not the legitimate winner in 2020. Rosen had about $6 million in cash on hand at the end of March.
6. Bob Casey, D-Pa.
Casey hasn’t yet drawn any Republican challengers, but this battleground state will be competitive in the presidential election, and Republicans hope this will be the cycle they oust the three-term incumbent. Republicans have already signaled that they will attack Casey as a D.C. insider working to enrich his family. But the GOP could have a competitive primary ahead complicating their efforts. While the NRSC is recruiting Dave McCormick, who lost a GOP Senate primary last year, former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano — who many Republicans consider incapable of winning a general election — is also toying with a run.
7. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
Wisconsin will be another presidential battlefield, but no Republicans have yet filed to run against Baldwin in her campaign to win a third term. Potential GOP candidates include GOP Rep. Tom Tiffany, businessman Eric Hovde and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, while Rep. Mike Gallagher hasn’t ruled out a run. A Democrat-backed candidate was easily elected to the state Supreme Court last month, but the state, which Biden won narrowly in 2020, is generally considered more divided than that election suggests. Baldwin had $3.9 million on hand at the end of March. She’s likely to focus on issues like the economy, health care and reproductive rights throughout the campaign.
8. Ted Cruz, R-Texas
Cruz gained a national profile running for president in 2016 and raised $1.5 million in the first quarter of 2023. On Wednesday, the Texas Republican who is running for a third term gained an opponent: Rep. Colin Allred, a Dallas-area Democrat who was an NFL linebacker and served in the Obama administration. In his introductory campaign video, Allred took aim at Cruz for traveling to Cancun during a winter freeze that devastated Texas in 2021. Allred is hoping to prove the Democrats’ theory that Texas is trending purple, but Cruz edged out his last Democratic opponent, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke, in 2018 despite being significantly outspent.