A year before Americans elect their next president, pundits, strategists and the two 2020 combatants themselves seem convinced the election will again pit President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Maybe. Maybe not.
It’s been 67 years since Republican President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Democrat Adlai Stevenson in 1956 in the last presidential rerun. More-recent elections suggest how much could change in the next 12 months. Three of the last four presidential elections unfolded differently from the conventional wisdom of one year earlier. Beyond that, the ultimate winner in many past elections was not apparent a year out.
In the past 80 years, the following winners were not regarded as favorites a year beforehand: President Harry Truman, Sen. John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton was favored twice — and lost both times.
The recent election that turned out the most differently from a year earlier was in 2008. In October 2007, the two poll leaders were New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans. The ultimate nominees, Obama and Sen. John McCain, were both subjects of speculation that their once-promising campaigns were collapsing.
More recently, the changes in the year that climaxed with the election weren’t as dramatic. But the campaigns unfolded differently from the outlook the preceding November. In 2015, most analysts were skeptical Trump would win the GOP nomination, though he had emerged to poll competitively against Hillary Clinton, the favorite for both the Democratic nomination and the general election.
Four years ago, polls showed Joe Biden in a close race with liberal Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts amid doubts about both Biden’s (77) and Sanders’ (78) ages.
But Sanders and Warren failed to take advantage of Biden’s poor showings in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, and Biden rebounded with second in Nevada’s caucuses and a landslide victory in South Carolina’s primary, leading to Democrats consolidating behind him.
Every election, of course, is different. But there are some patterns.
The last four presidents — George W. Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden — faced close reelection races, reflecting the evenly divided country. A loss in Ohio would have cost Bush the 2004 election. Trump lost by less than 100,000 votes in three states.
In some ways, the impending 2024 race resembles 1948 when Truman, suffering low job-approval levels, faced dissident Democrats on the left (former Vice President Henry Wallace) and the right (South Carolina Gov. Strom Thurmond) — plus the Republican (New York Gov. Thomas Dewey). Polling, then in its infancy, showed Dewey ahead but, on Election Day, Truman won.
Biden, too, could face multiple challengers. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced an independent candidacy, as has progressive author-activist Cornel West. The bipartisan No Labels group plans to run a moderate alternative.
With such uncertainty, presidential polling is tricky. But history says the race may look a lot different by next Nov. 5.
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