WASHINGTON — It’s fun to debate whether elections are close or an eternity away, and whether candidates have time to make their move or have missed their opportunity to win. But, as with most things, proximity depends on perspective, and tying key electoral moments to past or future nonpolitical events can be helpful when trying to understand what’s most likely to happen.
Here are some timely benchmarks that can provide useful context for the 2024 elections.
Iowa and football
Former President Donald Trump is the clear front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination for a third consecutive time. But while he led the Republican field by more than 40 points in the latest national poll for NBC News, his lead in the early states has been more narrow, giving Trump’s detractors hope that there’s still time for him to be dethroned.
On one hand, the Iowa Republican caucuses are less than four months away on Jan. 15, which feels imminent, and Trump is ahead of the field by anywhere from 24 to 32 points, according to five different polls over the past 10 days.
On the other hand, we just finished Week 4 of the college football season, and the entire season, including the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 8, will be completed before Republicans in Iowa make their presidential choice.