In Iowa, former President Donald Trump appears headed for victory in the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Jan. 15.
In New York – and in Florida, and in Georgia, and in Washington, DC – Trump is headed for something else: court.
For months, a divided nation has confronted the strange prospect of a split-screen election season, with Trump, the candidate, on one side, and Trump, the defendant, on the other.
Now, that prospect is about to become reality – and upend presidential politics, if not the American presidency itself. For the first time, courtrooms across the nation are about to become some of the most crucial stops on the road to the White House.
Three years after a mob attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in support of Trump, the worlds of politics and law are colliding spectacularly over the events of that day and the dueling narratives around them.
The legal dramas stemming from Jan. 6 and Trump’s business dealings have already put the 2024 race on an unprecedented course.
But now, just as primary season swings into gear, Trump could become the first former president in U.S. history to stand trial as a criminal defendant. His goal, campaign insiders say, is to lock down the Republican nomination by mid-March, placing his legal problems at the very center of what Trump and President Joe Biden both characterize as a battle for future of American democracy.
Only this week, the Trump campaign asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep him on the ballot in Colorado, in what could resolve the question of whether Trump engaged in insurrection and is therefore ineligible to hold office under the Constitution.
Meantime, in New York, Trump faces trial dates for two cases this month. One marks the conclusion of a civil fraud case against him and his company and could determine how or whether he continues to control the business that vaulted him to fame and fortune. The other will determine damages for defaming E. Jean Carroll, a New York writer who said he raped her in a New York department store in the 1990s.
Before a single vote is cast in Iowa, Biden is framing the November election as an existential test of American democracy. (Biden is scheduled to lay out what he sees as the stakes in a speech on Friday in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, where George Washington commanded troops during the Revolutionary War.)
The Trump campaign, for its part, is leveraging the former president’s 91 felony indictments, including charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election, into support and donations from loyal supporters.
The idea is to bundle the various accusations into a single narrative: Trump is being persecuted by the Biden administration and fellow Democrats.
Time and again, Trump has cast himself as a victim. And time and again, his supporters have responded with donations. Trump promptly raised $15.4 million after he was indicted in New York over payments to Stormy Daniels, the porn star; $4.5 million after he was indicted in Miami over withholding classified documents; and $7.1 million after he was arraigned in Georgia on charges related to his attempt to overturn the 2020 election.
In the coming days, Trump is planning to make courtroom appearances in New York and Washington that will generate fresh photos and headlines to stir up his supporters’ sympathies.
Tom Fitton, a Trump ally and president of the right-leaning Judicial Watch, said the avalanche of civil and criminal cases would be a distraction for any campaign. Trump, however, is trying to turn lemons into lemonade.
“To the degree it motivates supporters, that is the lemonade,” Fitton said. “They are doing the best with what they have been given.”
Trump has won several minor legal victories. Michael Cohen, his former attorney and fixer, this week lost an appeal to hold Trump liable for allegedly jailing him in retaliation for writing a tell-all memoir.
The publicity helps, too. Trump campaign officials say privately that they’ve been happy with the former president’s courthouse-step news briefings and the resulting media coverage.
“Imagine you are any other Republican candidate,” said Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker and Trump ally. “If you are Trump, he does not have to buy any ads. The media puts him on every day.”
As the 2024 campaign heats up, polls continue to point to the nation’s clangorous divisions. One survey published this week by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland found that views about the Jan. 6 Capitol riot continue to harden along party lines. Eight out of 10 Trump voters said it was time to move on. Nine in 10 Biden supporters said the events represented an attack on American democracy and should never be forgotten.
Now, eyes have turned to the nation’s unpopular Supreme Court, whose conservative majority will decide if states can remove Trump from the 2024 ballot.
The Trump campaign is confident the high court will rule in its favor.
“Now that an appeal is being filed with the Supreme Court, it will be an issue decided by the highest court in the land,” said Jason Miller, a Trump senior adviser.
