This year’s Super Tuesday primaries will put Donald Trump on the cusp of the Republican nomination and launch the longest general election battle in recent U.S. history.
Voters in 15 states are expected to hand Trump a clear victory over his last remaining GOP rival Nikki Haley, effectively blocking her White House bid.
The outcome will cement the November rematch with President Joe Biden, a race between two unpopular candidates that polls show the public doesn’t want. Here’s what to watch:
- Haley heading for the exits?
Haley made good on her promise to stay in the race through Super Tuesday.
Barring an upset, Haley will face increasing pressure to exit the race, having lost nearly every contest so far by significant margins.
A cross-country fundraising blitz has done little to keep big-money donors from turning elsewhere, calling into question the viability of her long-term strategy: Stick around in case Trump — who has been indicted four times — implodes.
- Closing in on the nomination
More than 800 Republican delegates — roughly 36% of the total — are up for grabs Tuesday, almost all of which will be awarded to the state winner, with the runner-up getting no delegates at all.
That’s good news for Trump: A substantial victory in each of the 15 nominating contests would put him at the precipice of notching the 1,215 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination. His campaign plans to sew up the nomination by mid-March.
The ex-president’s team has already begun consolidating power. He recently endorsed an overhaul in the Republican National Committee’s leadership structure — which included the appointment of his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to a top role — days before RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel announced she would step aside this month.
An end to the contested primary season would allow Trump to raise more money jointly with the party, a significant benefit given recent worrying signs of his campaign’s financial state and Trump’s mounting legal bills from his 91 felony counts.
Democrats will be closely watching votes designed to express disapproval with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war after an “uncommitted” vote effort in Michigan garnered more than 100,000 votes.
A Muslim American-led group known as “Abandon Biden” plans to mobilize voters in a similar fashion in Minnesota and North Carolina, asking people there to bubble in “uncommitted” and “no preference” as a way to register their criticism.
Still, Biden faces no serious challenges in the states casting Democratic primary ballots Tuesday. Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips’s long-shot bid to derail Biden’s march to the nomination has gained little traction.
Democratic operatives will be closely watching turnout in North Carolina, where Barack Obama narrowly won in 2008. Biden’s allies hope a decision to move South Carolina earlier on the primary calendar — a recognition of Black voters’ sizable influence — will energize the key constituency in other Southern states, including Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump has been trying to peel off support from Black voters, who have registered discontent with the president.
- Dueling agendas, part two
With the contours of the general election coming into focus, markets and world leaders are looking ahead to the policy implications of a second Trump or Biden term.
Trump has floated plans for across-the-board tariffs on imports — as well as a 60% levy on Chinese goods. He has vowed to pursue the largest deportation effort in U.S. history and has sowed concern among NATO members about his commitment to the alliance.
Biden has demanded — so far unsuccessfully — that Congress provide fresh funding for Ukraine two years into Russia’s invasion. Trump, meanwhile, opposes funneling aid to the country and wants to pursue an end to the war if elected.
Look for Biden to offer clues to his second-term agenda during his State of the Union address Thursday.
Although Trump will not have the delegates to officially end the primary after Super Tuesday, his general election pivot likely will be in full swing.
The former president is already spending most of his time criticizing Biden on the trail and hosting dueling events.
Biden, for his part, is expected to ramp up his campaign travel. The president has been deploying Vice President Kamala Harris, first lady Jill Biden and others in a bid to energize target voters, including young people and women.
The campaign also has been staffing up in swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia.
