President Joe Biden has gained ground against Republican Donald Trump in six of seven key swing states, and significantly so in at least two of them. The results make for the Democrat’s strongest position yet in a monthly Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
The move in the president’s direction comes after five months of mostly consistent Trump leads, and follows a State of the Union address that rallied Democrats and seemed to mitigate concerns about Biden’s age.
The shift was significant in Wisconsin, where Biden leads Trump by one point after trailing him by four points in February, and in Pennsylvania, where the candidates are tied after Trump held a six-point lead last month. They are also tied in Michigan.
It’s too soon to know whether the improved showing is a one-time bump or the beginning of a more durable change in the race, and Biden continues to lag the presumptive GOP nominee in four crucial states. But November victories in so-called “Blue Wall” northern battlegrounds would all but vault Biden to a second term.
Biden’s more upbeat numbers come at an inflection point in a campaign matchup that has seemed predetermined for months. The president and Trump each clinched their parties’ nominations on March 12, beginning an extraordinarily long general election season. Trump is currently strapped for campaign cash and holding fewer rallies and events, while the incumbent has kicked his reelection effort into high gear and is barnstorming the swing states, including a trip to North Carolina on Tuesday.
The poll also finds consumers feel better about the national economy, with a gradual increase in the number of swing-state voters who say it is on the right track.
The poll of 4,932 registered voters, which has an overall margin of error of 1 percentage point, offers a snapshot of where the candidates stand as they ramp up what is certain to be the most expensive campaign ever.
Biden narrowed or overcame his gap with Trump in many swing states
While the poll found Biden was most competitive in Blue Wall states, he also chipped away at his February deficit to Trump in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. In the seventh state, Georgia, Trump added to his lead. In some cases, the shift was within the margin of error.
Biden is blitzing all of those places with advertising, with 64% of his campaign’s broadcast television dollars spent since August in the Blue Wall states that looked most favorable for him.
Trump still leads across the seven swing states, 47% to 43%. With third-party candidates included, Trump is ahead with 43%. Biden has 38%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9% and Cornel West and Jill Stein each at 1%.
A majority of voters with a favorable opinion of Nikki Haley said they would vote for Trump in a head-to-head matchup in November, suggesting he is picking up many of the supporters of his former primary challenger.
Biden was buoyed by his State of the Union address
The poll was conducted starting March 8, the day after Biden delivered a spirited and unusually political speech before Congress that drew sharp contrasts with Trump — whom he referred to only as “my predecessor” — on issues like foreign policy, abortion rights, the border and gun control.
More than a third of voters said they had seen positive news about Biden recently, the highest level since polling began in October.
The speech may have helped with one of Biden’s biggest campaign obstacles: concerns about his age. About six in 10 voters said that vice presidential running mates will be more important this year because Biden will be 81 and Trump will be 78 on Election Day. That’s a seven-point drop from the February poll, which was fielded shortly after a special counsel’s report called Biden an “elderly man with a poor memory.”
Perceptions of Biden’s State of the Union address were tinted by partisanship. In response to open-ended questions about what they had heard recently about the candidates, Biden supporters called the speech fiery and energetic, while Trump supporters called it horrible and angry.
Nearly half of Biden voters say their aim is more to stop Trump
When asked if their support for Trump or Biden was more a vote for their chosen candidate or against the other one, a gap emerged.
Fewer than three in 10 Trump supporters said theirs was a vote against Biden. However, nearly half of Biden voters said theirs was a vote against Trump. In Wisconsin, where Biden leads, six in 10 of his supporters said their vote was a vote against Trump.
While those findings suggest a strong enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, they also hint at a potential voter-turnout engine for Biden.
“Negative energy motivates people,” said Eli Yokley, U.S. politics analyst for Morning Consult. “And the people who are supporting Joe Biden today are much more likely to express that negative energy that energized his 2020 campaign.”
Voters see a brightening economic picture, but still tend to trust Trump on those issues
Swing-state voters trust Trump over Biden on a wide range of pocketbook issues, including interest rates and the availability of good jobs, a gap that underscores a major challenge for the president in a race where the economy is swing-state voters’ top issue.
Yet on a number of measures, the poll found that swing-state voters’ perception of the economy is gradually improving. The percentage saying the national economy is on the right track has increased by 6 points, from 26% in October to 32%.
Swing-state voters said in October their personal financial situation was better off under Trump by a 20-point margin. It’s now 16 points.
And the number of people saying the economy is the single most important issue has also declined, from 39% to 34%. At the same time, the proportion who cite immigration as their top issue has nearly doubled, to 17%.Methodology
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,932 registered voters in seven swing states: 796 registered voters in Arizona, 788 in Georgia, 698 in Michigan, 447 in Nevada, 699 in North Carolina, 807 in Pennsylvania and 697 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online beginning March 8, and concluded March 14 in Arizona and Wisconsin, March 15 in Nevada, and March 12 in the remaining states. The aggregated data across the seven swing states were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing-state registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote and state. State-level data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
—With assistance from Elena Mejía and Jennah Haque.
