State, federal and tribal biologists are predicting that 160,400 adult spring chinook salmon will enter the Columbia River in 2017 destined for waters upstream of Bonneville Dam, a drop of about 30,000 from this year.
The Columbia River Technical Advisory Committee met this week to develop the spring chinook forecast, along with predictions of 63,100 summer chinook and 198,500 sockeye in 2017.
The forecasts were announced today.
“It’s a number we can fish on,’’ said Robert Moxley of Oregon, a member of the bistate Columbia River Recreational Advisor Group. “It’s not optimal and will be challenging regarding (Endangered Species Act) impacts. We know there were effects from the blob and we’ve got to make the best of it.’’
The blob was a huge concentration of unusually warm water that persisted in the past couple of years in the northern Pacific Ocean. Warmer-than-normal water temperatures normally result in reduced ocean survival of salmon.
“We looked at a number of different forecasts and several that we thought were reasonable suggested numbers in this range,’’ said Stuart Ellis, a biologist with the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. “We did have lower jack returns in 2016. There are a number of ocean indicator data that continue to suggest poor conditions for salmon, so smaller forecasts seem reasonable.’’
The spring chinook forecast in an important number in Columbia River and Northwest fishing circles. A good forecast will spark tackle sales and purchase of guided angling trips. Sport-fishing industry officials say when spring chinook angling is good interest in fishing stays high into the summer and fall runs.
Since 2005, in seven years the Columbia spring chinook runs have been larger and in five years smaller than the 2017 forecast. This year’s return was 187,816. The decade-low was 86,200 in 2007.
In 2016, anglers in the lower Columbia kept 12,666 adult spring chinook and released 3,776 from 126,826 trips. During the spring salmon season, anglers also kept 2,621 steelhead and released 693.
Summer chinook — The forecast of 63,100 summer chinook is a decline from this year. In 2016, the forecast was 93,300 and the actual return was 91,048.
In 2016, anglers in the lower Columbia kept 3,080 adult summer chinook and released 4,170 from 58,067 trips. During the summer salmon period, anglers also kept 4,250 steelhead and released 1,930.
Sockeye — The forecast is for 198,500 sockeye is a number smaller than in recent years. That forecast includes 137,900 to the Okanogan River, 54,200 to the Wenatchee River, 4,000 to the Yakima River, 1,400 to the Snake River and 1,000 to the Deschutes.
Sockeye do not bite well on sport gear. In 2016, lower Columbia sportsmen kept 744 and released 81. They are mostly an incidental catch by anglers targeting on summer chinook and particularly summer steelhead.
