Caterpillars say the winter should be about normal

Inconclusive Woolly Bear Report: It seems like nature may have the same opinion as the weather experts did Friday at OMSI in Portland. In Saturday’s Columbian, an article by Erik Robinson mentioned that the “forecast seems to involve ‘extreme cluelessness.’” This is an interpretation coined years ago by Oregon State University climatologist George Taylor for “EC” as used on forecast charts by the National Weather Service. In their long-range weather predictions for the season, if expectations for temperatures or precipitation are neither high nor low, EC is used to note that there are Equal Chances of below average and above average conditions.

And as forecasters reported at the meeting Friday, there are no real signs one way or another of this winter’s averaging colder or warmer, wetter or drier than normal.

The woolly bear caterpillars agree. In my annual survey of these fuzzy little critters, the overall average of orange middle segments was four. Folklore has it that the width of the middle orange band determines the conditions of the upcoming winter. Two or three segments would indicate a cold, possibly snowy winter; five or six or more mean milder than normal.

In my 30 years or so of searching out these lowly winter prognosticators, they seem to have about the same accuracy as the almanacs and some professionals as well. Although less than scientific, this year brings an “EC” from my survey.